#12 Strategic Daily: Israel - Palestine Conflict: A strategic assessment for what could (and should) be next
Our current thoughts on the unfolding crisis.
Israel - Palestine Conflict: A strategic assessment for what could (and should) be next
The situation in Palestine is dire, with a seemingly insurmountable cycle of violence, deep-seated grievances, and a lack of diplomatic progress. While the short-term outlook appears bleak, the long-term prospects also look discouraging, mirroring the state of affairs since the conflict's inception in 1948. The current turmoil is a consequence of historical actions, unresolved issues, and the preference for maintaining the status quo of violence over finding lasting solutions. It is imperative to assess the situation with a discerning eye, understanding that the consequences of inaction could ignite a regional powder keg and perpetuate the cycle of violence.
Recent events have introduced a new dimension to the Israel-Palestine conflict, drawing more attention from key players like the United States. The alleged link between Hamas and Iran has created an environment where the US public might demand more extensive reprisals to prevent future occurrences. This could provide Israel with a perceived blank cheque to launch actions that could alter the status quo significantly, such as demolishing Gaza, retaking the West Bank, and dealing a severe blow to Lebanon. This situation is poised to be leveraged by the US to gain additional strategic power, with Israel expanding its borders and the Arab world responding. However, this dynamic also carries the risk of regional destabilization, potentially recreating the conditions reminiscent of the 1948 conflict.
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