#15 Strategic Daily: New Zealand's New Government and What it Means for Defence and the Indo-Pacific
Will the National-Act coalition push New Zealand military and foreign affairs forward, or will it remain status-quo?
The recent election of the New Zealand National Party has (fingers crossed) ushered in a new era for the country's foreign affairs and defence policy. The party's manifesto emphasizes the importance of a strong and capable Defence Force, as well as a close relationship with Australia and other Five Eyes partners.
National's vision for New Zealand's defence is based on the following key principles:
A strong and combat-ready Defence Force: National is committed to maintaining a well-equipped and well-trained Defence Force that is able to protect New Zealand's interests and values overseas. The party has pledged to increase funding for the military and to invest in new capabilities, such as the P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft.
A close relationship with Australia: National regards Australia as New Zealand's closest ally and partner. The party has pledged to strengthen this relationship through enhanced cooperation on defence, security, and trade.
A commitment to working with like-minded partners: National believes that New Zealand is best served by working with other countries that share its values. The party has pledged to deepen cooperation with the Five Eyes, as well as with other partners in the Indo-Pacific region.
These principles are likely to have a significant impact on New Zealand's defence posture in the years to come.
Implications for the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region is increasingly becoming the focus of strategic competition between the major powers. China's growing military and economic influence is particularly concerning to many countries in the region, including New Zealand.
National's commitment to a strong and capable Defence Force, as well as its close relationship with Australia and other Five Eyes partners, is a clear signal that New Zealand is prepared to play a more active role in regional security.
New Zealand is likely to continue to focus on maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. The country has a vast maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and is responsible for search and rescue in a large area of the Pacific Ocean. New Zealand is also a member of the Pacific Islands Forum, a regional organization that plays an important role in promoting security and cooperation in the Pacific.
National is also likely to deepen cooperation with other like-minded partners in the Indo-Pacific, such as India and Japan. These countries share New Zealand's concerns about China's growing influence and are working together to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Overall, New Zealand's new government is committed to a more active role in regional security. This is likely to have a positive impact on the security of the Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
Challenges Ahead and China
New Zealand's new government faces a number of challenges in implementing its defence and foreign affairs policy. One challenge is the limited budget available for defence. New Zealand has a relatively small military budget compared to other developed countries. This limits the government's ability to invest in new capabilities and to maintain a large and well-trained Defence Force.
Another challenge is the changing security landscape in the Indo-Pacific. The rise of China is challenging the existing security order in the region. New Zealand will need to adapt its defence policy to meet these new challenges.
Despite these challenges, New Zealand's new government is committed to a more active role in regional security. This is likely to have a positive impact on the security of the Indo-Pacific region as a whole.
The New Zealand National Party's foreign affairs, defence and veterans policy is likely to have a mixed impact on the Chinese New Zealand relationship.
On the one hand, the party's commitment to a strong and capable Defence Force, as well as its close relationship with Australia and other Five Eyes partners, is likely to raise concerns in China. China has been critical of the Five Eyes alliance in the past, and views it as a containment strategy aimed at preventing its rise.
On the other hand, National has also pledged to maintain a constructive relationship with China. The party recognizes that China is New Zealand's largest trading partner and that the two countries have a number of shared interests, such as climate change and counter-terrorism.
It is likely that the National government will try to balance its security concerns with its economic interests in its relationship with China. The government has already signaled that it is prepared to work with China on issues of mutual interest, such as climate change.
The impact of the National government's foreign affairs and defence policy on the Chinese New Zealand relationship will also depend on China's own behavior. If China continues to take an aggressive approach in the Indo-Pacific and to suppress human rights domestically, it is likely to lead to a more strained relationship with New Zealand. However, if China is willing to work with New Zealand on issues of mutual interest, it is possible that the relationship can remain constructive.