#21 Strategic Daily: One by One, the dominoes to escalation in the Middle East are falling.
Is the West going back to the Sandpit?
In the wake of intensifying hostilities in the Israel-Gaza conflict, a dimension of escalation has surfaced. Recent weeks have witnessed Iran-backed groups carrying out drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, an indicator of the spillover effects of the conflict. The United States, while deeply concerned about these developments, has stopped short of pressing Israel for a ceasefire.
Escalating Tensions: The Pentagon Speaks
From October 17th to 24th, U.S. and coalition forces found themselves under attack at least 10 times in Iraq and three times in Syria. Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon Press Secretary, confirmed these attacks, highlighting the involvement of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in backing these hostile acts. Ryder emphasized the U.S.'s commitment to defend its forces and interests in the region against any escalation.
Moreover, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin voiced concerns over the increasing UAV and rocket attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. He hinted at preparing for potential escalations to ensure the safety of U.S. troops.
While the U.S. expressed willingness to consider humanitarian pauses to allow essential supplies into Gaza, the idea of a full-blown ceasefire was rebuffed. The distinction between a humanitarian pause and a ceasefire was clarified by National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, who noted the belief that a ceasefire could benefit Hamas. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized Israel's responsibility to prevent civilian casualties and allow the uninterrupted flow of essential humanitarian supplies.
However, there was a universal condemnation of the loss of civilian lives. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi condemned both the Hamas massacre of Israelis and the Israeli strikes resulting in Palestinian casualties. The sentiment of failing both Palestinian and Israeli people resonated deeply.
The Regional Impact and Potential for a Wider Conflict
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