ALCON Intelligence Summary 10 Jan 24
Massive happenings in South America today. We provide a comprehensive breakdown and analysis of the situation.
Hi all,
The world seems to have taken a downturn in the space of 48 hours. The Indo-Pacific continues to simmer away with some little flash points here and there, the meat grinder of Ukraine continues to churn out destruction, Gaza is still hot and now South America is cooking off.
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RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 08 JAN 24
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 10 2138L JAN 24
ICOD: 10 2030L JAN 24
CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON
QQQQ
BLUF:
INDO PACIFIC UPDATE
Taiwan on High Alert: Unexpected deviation of a Chinese rocket over Taiwan raises security concerns ahead of crucial elections.
Election Watch: Taiwan's presidential race is a tight contest with significant implications for cross-strait relations.
SOUTH AMERICA UPDATE
Ecuador in Turmoil: President Noboa declares internal armed conflict in response to escalating gang violence and public disturbances.
For detailed insights into these evolving situations and their broader implications, read the full report.
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INDO PACIFIC THREAT UPDATE
(U) China - Taiwan Tensions. On Tuesday, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) of Taiwan issued a nationwide alert following the detection of a deviation in the flight path of a Chinese rocket carrying a satellite. The rocket, launched from Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan Province, was observed at approximately 3:03 p.m. deviating from its expected trajectory over Chenzhou in Hunan Province.
(U) This unexpected change in course, which was not aligned with the United States' Federal Aviation Agency's forecast, raised concerns as the rocket moved over Taiwan. The Taiwanese military's Air Force Combatant Command, prioritizing the potential risk of damage on the ground, activated the Public Warning System (PWS) at 3:17 p.m. and 3:18 p.m., informing citizens that the satellite had traversed southern Taiwan's airspace.
(U) The Chinese rocket passed from Tainan to Taitung at an altitude of about 500 kilometers, classified as outer space. This incident led to inquiries regarding the necessity of the alert, especially since similar past Chinese launches did not prompt PWS messages. Additionally, the MND faced criticism for a translation error in the English version of the alert, mistakenly identifying the satellite as a "missile."
(U) Analyst Comment: The timing of this incident, occurring just days before Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections, could be perceived as strategically significant. While there is no explicit indication of political intent behind the rocket's flight path deviation, the situation's proximity to the Taiwanese elections warrants careful monitoring for any potential impacts on regional tensions or electoral dynamics.
(U) Update on Taiwanese Elections. This Saturday, January 13, Taiwan is set to hold significant elections, where voters will choose a president from three candidates representing different political parties. The contenders include Lai Qingde from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is the current ruling party, Hou Yu from the Kuomintang (KMT), and Ke Wenzhe from the Taiwan People's Party. In accordance with local election rules, opinion polls are prohibited in the ten days leading up to the election, but the latest available data from January 2 suggests the following scenario:
Lai Qingde is the frontrunner in the polls, with support ranging from 30.9% to 40%, averaging at 35.5%.
Hou Yu trails with a support range of 24.1% to 38%, averaging at 31%.
Ke Wenzhe holds third place, with support varying between 18.9% and 25.2%, and an average of 22%.
Notably, about 15% of voters remain undecided, a significant proportion that could sway the outcome towards either Lai or Hou.
(U) Analyst Comment. A win for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is likely to escalate tensions with China, potentially leading to aggressive responses from Beijing, including a higher risk of military confrontation. Conversely, victories for either the Kuomintang (KMT) or the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) are viewed as steps towards a more conciliatory, reunification-oriented approach with China.
The KMT's strategy to secure a win hinges on attracting undecided voters and TPP supporters to form an anti-DPP coalition. However, this plan is undermined by the opposition's disunity. More critically, a DPP presidency coupled with KMT control of the parliament could weaken Taiwan's military capabilities. There are allegations that KMT lawmakers have previously blocked military budgets and disrupted defense projects. A notable instance involves a KMT congresswoman allegedly leaking confidential information about a submarine project, compromising its security and development.
SOUTH AMERICA UPDATE
(R//ALCON) Crisis in Ecuador. Ecuador is experiencing a severe internal armed conflict, declared by President Daniel Noboa, in response to escalating violence by criminal groups. This conflict has intensified following an unprecedented live broadcast takeover by armed men in Guayaquil, leading to a nationwide state of emergency. The situation includes:
(R//ALCON) Violence and Public Unrest: Armed assailants, now arrested, disrupted a live TV broadcast in Guayaquil, a stark example of the increasing brazenness of criminal activities. Simultaneously, cities across Ecuador are witnessing violence, kidnappings, and public disturbances.
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