ALCON Intelligence Summary 15 Jan 2024
Here's what you need to know about the world's most tense hotspots, and what to expect moving forward.
RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 15 JAN 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 15 2153 L JAN 24
ICOD: 15 1900L JAN 24
CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON
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BLUF:
North Korea tests hypersonic missile threatening stability in the region. Taiwan elections increase uncertainty on future conflict. Middle East battlefield update, Houthi’s to carry out several courses of action.
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INDO PACIFIC
North Korea Tests Hypersonic Warhead
(U) The Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Republic of Korea Armed Forces reported a significant development in regional military activities. On January 14, 2024, at 14:55 local time, North Korea executed a missile test involving a suspected medium-range ballistic missile. This missile was launched from the outskirts of Pyongyang and was directed towards the East Sea. The missile successfully covered a distance of approximately one thousand kilometers before descending into the sea
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(U) This event marks North Korea's first missile launch of the year 2024, following a series of ballistic missile tests conducted in the previous year. Notably, on December 17 and 18, 2023, North Korea had engaged in similar activities, with the December 18 event involving the Hwasong-18, a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile.
Analyst Comment:
(U) Regarding the implications of this missile test, it is almost certain that it will lead to further regional tensions. This assessment considers that the missile launch is not an isolated event but rather a reaction to the actions of the United States and South Korea. Consequently, it is likely that Washington and Seoul will implement a series of countermeasures, justifying their actions within the security dilemma framework.
(U) From a broader perspective, there seems to be a gradual escalation in the regional relations. We judge that the immediate region is no longer moving towards a dangerous path, but is now moving along it. It is crucial to note, however, that despite the aggressive rhetoric from both sides, there have been no significant breaches of established boundaries.
Taiwan Elections: An Initial Assessment on Potential Conflict
(U) In the wake of Lai Qingde's victory in Taiwan's presidential elections, a challenging political situation is currently present. Lai, known for his pro-American stance, faces a challenging situation in the Taiwanese parliament. Here, a balance of power exists between three major groups: the "Americans," the "Chinese," and crucially, the "populists." The latter group holds significant sway, as their support is essential for any major legislative action.
(U) Given this configuration, the likelihood of the "Americans" party pushing through an independence declaration from the People's Republic of China (PRC) appears to be negligible. The "populists" are anticipated to block not only such moves but also any major constitutional changes. This reality creates a situation where the parliament, despite having a pro-American president, is not in favor of Taiwanese independence.
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