ALCON Intelligence Summary 20 DEC 23
Japan assesses how a Taiwan invasion plays out, USSPACECOM establishes full operational capability.
RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 20 DEC 23
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 1450L 20 DEC 23
ICOD: 1430L
CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON
QQQQ
BLUF: [BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT SUMMARY]
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
(U) The French Ministry of Defense is cracking down on military personnel who join foreign armies without authorization. This follows reports of the Chinese army recruiting Western pilots, including those from France, to enhance their air combat tactics. France's new Military Programming Law LPM 2024-30 mandates military members with sensitive roles to declare any intention to work for foreign countries. Violations can lead to penalties like loss of pension, stripping of military honors, or up to 5 years imprisonment and a €75,000 fine. Similar recruitment by the Chinese army has been reported in the UK and Germany, with former pilots being offered substantial salaries.
(U) The U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM), established in 2019 under former President Donald Trump, has achieved full operating capability. This announcement was made by its commander, Army Gen. James Dickinson, during a recent town hall. USSPACECOM, the Pentagon's 11th combatant command, focuses on deterring conflict, defending U.S. interests, and defeating aggression in space.
(U) The Canon Institute for Global Studies in Japan assesses five potential scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan:
Taiwan's Declaration of Independence: If Taiwan officially declares independence, China might feel compelled to use military force to uphold the CCP's "one China" principle.
PLA Overconfidence: The PLA could overestimate its capabilities and underestimate the U.S. military, leading to a belief that they can successfully take control of Taiwan.
Internal CCP Power Struggles: Emerging political challenges within the CCP could lead to criticism of current foreign policy as weak. To suppress opposition, the current leadership might feel pressured to act militarily.
Rising Domestic Discontent in China: Economic issues and nationalistic discontent in China might drive the leadership to adopt a more aggressive foreign policy stance.
Xi Jinping's Miscalculation: Strategic errors by China's leader could precipitate an invasion.
Analyst Comment.
The recent developments highlighted in these reports reflect a growing tension involving China and its perceived strategic ambitions. The French Ministry of Defense's crackdown on unauthorized military personnel transfers, especially in the context of Chinese recruitment efforts, illustrates a broader concern among Western nations about China's military modernization and expansion. By offering substantial salaries to experienced Western pilots, China seems to be actively seeking to bridge the gap in air combat expertise, potentially challenging the existing balance of power in aerial warfare.
The full operational capability of the U.S. Space Command (USSPACECOM) is a significant milestone in the context of these tensions. This development is indicative of the increasing importance of space as a domain of military and strategic competition. USSPACECOM's role in deterring conflict and defending U.S. interests in space is particularly relevant given China's advancements in space technology and capabilities, which could have implications for global satellite communication, surveillance, and possibly even warfare.
Lastly, the scenarios outlined by the Canon Institute for Global Studies regarding a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan provide a broad view of the risks in the Taiwan Strait. Each scenario highlights different triggers that could lead to military action, from internal political dynamics within the CCP to broader strategic miscalculations. This analysis is important for understanding the connections of domestic and international factors that could drive China's decision-making regarding Taiwan. The emphasis on the possibility of overconfidence within the PLA or Xi Jinping's miscalculations is particularly notable, suggesting that internal Chinese perceptions and leadership decisions could significantly influence regional stability.
-----END TEARLINE-----
(R//ALCON) Gaza Tactical Update
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Grey Zone to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.