RR ALCON Intelligence Summary 24 JAN 2024
PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 24 2200 L JAN 24
ICOD: 24 1200L JAN 24
CONTROLS: COMPARTMENT ALCON
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BLUF:
(U) North Korea recently launched several cruise missiles towards the Yellow Sea, leading to increased monitoring by South Korea in coordination with the United States. Simultaneously, at the Non-Aligned Movement summit, North Korea defended its military developments as a response to perceived threats, especially from the US.
(U) Tensions between the EU and China are escalating, potentially leading to a trade confrontation, rooted in longstanding trade imbalances and differences in market access policies. In military advancements, China has developed a Mach 7-capable smart shell for electromagnetic guns, a significant leap following the US abandonment of a similar project.
(U) In the Middle East, various groups have escalated their operations against Israeli forces, with activities ranging from missile strikes to seizing drones, indicating a multi-front pressure strategy.
(U) Russia's military operations in Ukraine show continued offensive efforts with air and ground-based strikes, despite facing systemic challenges like inadequate command and control and high attrition rates in frontal assaults.
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INDO PACIFIC
North Korea
(U) North Korea launched several cruise missiles toward the Yellow Sea, as reported by the Yonhap agency citing the Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Korea. The launch occurred around 07:00 local time, with no further details provided. In response, the South Korean military has increased its monitoring efforts and is closely coordinating with the United States. This development follows an earlier report on January 15 about the UK's successful launch of a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic maneuverable guided warhead.
(U) At the recent Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit held in Uganda from January 15 to 20, North Korea robustly defended its military development initiatives. DPRK Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son Gyong, representing North Korea at the summit attended by 120 countries not aligned with major power blocs, declared that the nation's military enhancement is a rightful response to the perceived threats from the United States and its allies.
(U) Kim argued that North Korea's actions align with the principles of the Non-Aligned Movement, which advocates against the violation of a nation's sovereign rights. Additionally, on the summit's sidelines, Kim Son Gyong held discussions with Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin, indicating North Korea's continued diplomatic engagement with certain international partners.
Possible EU vs China Trade War
(U) Tensions between the European Union (EU) and China are escalating, potentially leading to an open trade confrontation. Senior officials in Brussels, as reported by the South China Morning Post, indicate that neither party is willing to make fundamental concessions to resolve their differences. The EU's dissatisfaction stems from China's trade practices and policies, despite recent assurances from Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
(U) China, the EU's main trading partner, saw a trade turnover of $782.9 billion in 2023, with an imbalance heavily favoring China. Disagreements were not resolved in the December 2023 face-to-face summit, where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned of potential restrictions on Chinese access to the European market.
China Develops ‘Smart Shell’ for Electromagnetic Gun
(U) Chinese naval scientists have reportedly developed a smart shell for an electromagnetic gun, capable of traveling at Mach 7 and maintaining a high level of accuracy. This development comes after the United States abandoned its similar project. The Chinese shell can travel 2,500 meters in one second, guided by the BeiDou satellite navigation system, and maintains an error margin of less than 15 meters. This technology could significantly impact military capabilities, particularly against large targets such as warships or ports.
(U) The US initially pursued a similar project, aiming for a shell navigating at Mach 5 with GPS guidance, but eventually discontinued its electromagnetic gun program. In contrast, the Chinese team, without external assistance, overcame challenges such as intense electromagnetic fields during launch and the need for high-precision satellite signal reception. Their solution included a novel antenna design and a special internal structure for the BeiDou signal receiver to withstand extreme launch forces and intense heat.
MIDDLE EAST
Major Escalation from Iraqi Resistance
(U) Iraqi Resistance leader Abu-al-Walai, has taken to Twitter/X indicating an escalation in threat operations, a “second phase”:
(U) “At a time when the criminal American occupation is again blatantly targeting our security forces and our sacred crowd in a number of areas of Iraq, we urge the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to begin the 2nd phase of their blessed operations, which includes enforcing the blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea, and removing the entity’s ports until the Zionist usurper is out of service, and this will continue until the unjust siege on Gaza is lifted, and the horrific Zionist massacres against its people are stopped.”
Threat Operational Update
Al-Qassam Brigades
(U) The Al-Qassam Brigades reported several military actions in the Khan Yunis area of southern Gaza. These included the destruction of a military vehicle with a Yassin-105s missile and targeting three military D9-bulldozers using "Tandem" and Yassin-105s.
(U) They also claimed to have successfully detonated a pre-rigged building, resulting in the death of three Israeli soldiers and injuring others.
(U) Additional actions included targeting a Merkava tank with a Yassin-105, shelling military gatherings with heavy-caliber mortars near Gaza City, and seizing three Israeli Defense Forces (IOF) drones.
(U) A complex operation was executed east of Al-Maghazi Camp, targeting a building housing an Israeli force and a Merkava tank, causing multiple casualties and confirmed deaths.
Al-Quds Brigades
(U) Activities in the Khan Yunis area included the destruction of a Merkava tank using a high-explosive Thaqqib-barrel, along with a barrage of mortar shells targeting Israeli positions.
(U) They inflicted casualties among IOF soldiers in Al-Bureij and Al-Maghazi camps in central Gaza.
(U) Other actions involved targeting a Merkava tank and a military D9-bulldozer with RPGs, and shelling IOF forces with mortars and Badr-1 IRAM rockets.
Mujahideen Brigades
(U) The Mujahideen Brigades claimed to have downed an IOF SKY RACING-type 528 drone in Beit Lahia and targeted IOF soldiers and vehicles in eastern Jabalia with a Sa'ir missile, causing deaths.
Al-Aqsa Brigades
(U) The Al-Aqsa Brigades reported targeting IOF soldiers with shells in Khan Yunis, causing direct injuries and casualties, and bombarding a tank depot with 60mm mortars.
Hezbollah
(U) Hezbollah's operations included targeting Israeli soldiers in Tal al-Kubra with rocket-propelled munition and the Meron Air Surveillance base in Mount Jarmaq with rockets. They also targeted the Khirbet Ma’ar IOF base, causing direct injuries.
(U) The group has released a video showing the process of launching rockets and missiles towards the Meron Air Control Base. IDF have reported damage to the installation:
ASSESSMENT
Gaza Strip
(U) Threat groups in the Gaza Strip likely aim to challenge the resolve of the Israeli political establishment and the public's support for sustained military operations in the area. Their tactics are likely designed to weaken the material resources and morale of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operating around the Gaza Strip. By targeting these aspects, they seek to undermine the effectiveness and endurance of any major Israeli ground operation in the region.
West Bank
(U) In the West Bank, the objectives of these groups will almost certainly focus on diverting and engaging IDF forces. Their strategy likely involves drawing significant IDF assets and resources to the West Bank and maintaining their presence there. This approach aims to strain IDF capabilities and attention, potentially limiting their operational flexibility and responsiveness in other areas.
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