ALCON INTSUM #013: Increased Operations in Taiwan, Middle East Intensifies, and Russia Advances in Ukraine
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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
Around Taiwan, there is an increase in military activities with 301 aviation sorties and 136 naval exits, alongside China's announcement to complete the Caihong-7 UAV development by year-end. North Korea has launched Hwasal-2 cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea.
In the Middle East, Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq has suspended operations against American forces. Various Palestinian groups, including Hezbollah, have intensified military actions against Israeli targets.
In Europe, Russia has initiated a winter-spring offensive in the Ukraine conflict and is addressing internal political dynamics ahead of the presidential election, including efforts to control the information space and establish a "sovereign internet." The UK Ministry of Defense reports that Russia's defense industry can produce at least 100 main battle tanks per month. Additionally, Russian authorities plan to increase the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia in 2024.
INDO-PACIFIC
Increased Military Activities Around Taiwan
In January 2024, there were significant military activities around Taiwan, including 301 recorded sorties of aviation, UAVs, and PLA balloons, along with 136 exits by naval vessels. This heightened military presence underscores the escalating tensions and strategic importance of the region.
Advancements in Chinese UAV Capabilities
China has announced its intention to complete the development of the Caihong-7 (CH-7), a reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicle, by the end of 2024. This advancement indicates a significant boost in China's aerial capabilities, potentially altering the regional strategic balance.
North Korean Missile Activity
North Korea confirmed the launch of Hwasal-2 cruise missiles into the Yellow Sea, continuing its development of missile capabilities amidst regional tensions.
Taiwan's Military Preparedness and Reforms
On the eve of the Lunar New Year celebrations, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, accompanied by Defense Minister Qiu Guozheng, inspected Penghu Island. This visit included observation of military exercises simulating a PLA Army Aviation raid and the landing of personnel from Hui'an, Fujian, to Penghu Island.
Taiwan's military response involved deploying anti-aircraft units, M60A3 tanks, and electronic warfare equipment against simulated Chinese drones. President Tsai also visited the Navy logistics headquarters in Magun, a military engine production plant, and the Ude military camp.
She emphasized the government's commitment to military reforms, modernizing military bases under the Xinan project, and highlighted the peak defense budget of NT$600.7 billion ($19.27 billion) for the current fiscal year. The strategic importance of the military units in the Penghu Islands and their role in national security was particularly noted.
MIDDLE EAST
Analysis of Kata'ib Hezbollah's Decision to Suspend Operations Against American Forces
The recent announcement by Kata'ib Hezbollah to halt its operations against American forces in Iraq highlights several key factors:
Kata'ib Hezbollah's Position within Iraqi Resistance Kata'ib Hezbollah is a major player in Iraq in terms of its capabilities. However, it's important to understand that this group is just one part of a larger Iraqi resistance movement. Their decision to suspend operations reflects their own strategies and may not necessarily align with the actions or intentions of other groups within the resistance.
Reasons Behind Suspending Operations The suspension of activities against US forces is likely to be a strategic move to lessen the pressure on the Iraqi government. Given that the Iraqi government is walking a tightrope between the group and the United States, weakening the government's position could potentially harm the broader resistance movement. This decision will likely be seen as an effort to maintain the current balance of power and protect the interests of both the resistance and the Iraqi government.
Independence and Decision-Making This move illustrates the independence that characterizes the decision-making process of the Axis of Resistance. This independence is a key factor distinguishing these groups from entities that might operate under external influence or direction, such as how some alliances are perceived to operate under the influence of more dominant powers.
Challenges Facing the Resistance Nexus The broader Axis of Resistance of which Kata'ib Hezbollah is a part, faces significant challenges, including the current oppressive war. Despite these challenges, the resistance front is not seen as insurmountable. Iran, which plays a central role in supporting these resistance groups, is likely to face increasing pressure due to its involvement.
Operational Focus and Future Predictions While Kata'ib Hezbollah has announced a suspension of operations against American forces, this does not extend to actions against Israeli assets. The situation remains dynamic, and future developments are uncertain. The Iraqi government's struggles with US-imposed sanctions and economic challenges add another layer of complexity.
Potential Outcomes and U.S. Response The suspension of attacks lead to various potential scenarios. It will either create an opportunity for diplomatic solutions or potentially lead to further tensions, depending on how other parties, particularly the US, choose to respond. There are reports suggesting that the US might be preparing for potential military actions against Iraqi resistance facilities or those linked to Iran. The effectiveness and consequences of Kata'ib Hezbollah's decision will unfold with time, and the situation requires close monitoring to understand its full impact.
Axis of Resistance Tactical Updates
Al-Qassam Brigades Activities Al-Qassam Brigades have been actively targeting Israeli military assets, including two Merkava tanks in a neighborhood west of Khan Yunis and the destruction of a tank and a bulldozer near central Gaza City. Additionally, they engaged in a missile attack followed by ground combat in the western axis of Gaza City, reportedly causing Israeli casualties.
Al-Quds Brigades Engagements This group conducted a series of operations, including shelling a military gathering near Al-Maghazi camp and engaging in clashes with Israeli forces in multiple locations around Gaza City. They claimed to have targeted several tanks and a bulldozer and also conducted a sniper attack near Khan Yunis.
Al-Mujahideen Brigades Operations The Al-Mujahideen Brigades focused on rocket attacks against Israeli forces in east Al-Bureij and west of Gaza City. They also claimed a rocket strike on the Nahal Oz settlement and engaged in direct clashes with Israeli forces.
Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades Confrontations Engagements by the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades included clashes with Israeli forces in Tulkarm camp and targeting sniper positions in the Bilaluna axis. They used machine guns and anti-tank mines in these operations.
Hezbollah's Military Actions Hezbollah's operations included rocket attacks against Israeli forces near Hadb Yaroun and Hadab Ayta, as well as targeting spy equipment near Al-Wazani village. They also claimed successful strikes on a building in the Metulla settlement and the Dahiyra site.
The Islamic Resistance targeted the Biranit barracks, a key military installation of the Israeli army, using Burkan missiles:
EUROPE
Russian Winter-Spring Offensive in Ukraine The Russian military has initiated its anticipated 2024 winter-spring offensive in the border area between Kharkiv and Luhansk Oblasts. This move signifies a continuation and possible escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Military Leadership Ukrainian officials have been addressing rumors regarding the dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, consistently denying such claims. This situation indicates the importance of stable military leadership in Ukraine's ongoing defense efforts.
Violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention There are ongoing concerns that Russian forces are violating the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a signatory. Such actions, if confirmed, would represent a serious escalation in warfare tactics and a breach of international law.
New Appointment in Russian Volunteer Society Russian Army General Alexander Dvornikov has been reportedly appointed as the new chairperson of the DOSAAF. This appointment may reflect a strategic move to strengthen Russia's military support organizations.
Dmitry Medvedev's Comments on Japan and the Kuril Islands Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, made inflammatory remarks about Japan while asserting Russia’s rights to the disputed Kuril Islands. This rhetoric likely serves as part of a broader Kremlin strategy to bolster its stance against the US-led alliance system in the Indo-Pacific, showing support for China.
Framing of the War in Ukraine Senior Russian officials are reportedly intensifying efforts to justify the prolonged war in Ukraine as a fundamental geopolitical confrontation with the West, drawing direct comparisons between the US and historical Nazi aggression. This narrative may be aimed at galvanizing domestic and international support.
Internet Outages and Sovereign Internet System Russian opposition sources have suggested that the recent widespread internet outages in Russia may be linked to efforts to establish a "sovereign internet" system. This move could be part of broader efforts to control information flow within the country.
Control Over Russian Information Space In the lead-up to the March 2024 Russian presidential election, the Kremlin is reportedly intensifying its control over the Russian information space. This strategy aligns with the development of the "sovereign internet" system and may be aimed at influencing public perception and electoral outcomes.
Russian Military Advances in Ukraine Russian forces have made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Horlivka, with ongoing positional engagements along the entire line of contact as of January 30. These developments indicate a continuation of intense military engagements in the region.
Russian Defense Industrial Base Capabilities The UK Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian defense industrial base can produce at least 100 main battle tanks per month. This production capacity suggests that Russia can sustain its current military operations in Ukraine for an extended period.
Deportation of Ukrainian Children Russian authorities are planning to increase the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia in 2024. This concerning development may be part of a broader strategy to exert cultural and demographic influence in the region.