ALCON INTSUM #014: Russia-China Defense Pact Strengthens, Signalling New Phase in Global Stratagem
Understand your Adversary
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
Chinese PLA Rocket Forces to expand arsenal by 2028 with over 1,000 missile launchers and new missile silos.
Philippines to undertake large-scale construction on islands in the South China Sea.
Russia and China strengthen defense ties through strategic negotiations.
Axis of Resistance intensifies military actions across Yemen, Gaza, and Hezbollah territories.
Ukraine conducts strikes on Russian targets in Crimea; prisoner-of-war exchange occurs.
EU falls short of delivering pledged artillery shells to Ukraine.
INDO-PACIFIC
Chinese PLA Rocket Forces Expansion
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Forces are projected to significantly expand their arsenal by 2028, posing a substantial threat in the region. According to China analyst Antonio Graceffo, the PLA Rocket Forces will possess over 1,000 ballistic missile launchers, categorized as follows:
507 launchers capable of carrying nuclear payloads.
Between 342 to 432 conventional launchers.
252 launchers with dual-use capability.
Additionally, the construction of 320 stationary silos for solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and 30 stationary silos for liquid-fuel ICBMs is underway. It's crucial to note that these estimates exclude launchers operated by the PLA Air Force and Navy.
In the context of a potential invasion of Taiwan, the PLA's strategy includes the deployment of precise conventional and nuclear strikes. The missile arsenal earmarked for such a scenario comprises 1,000 short-range ballistic missiles, 100 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and approximately 600 ground-launched cruise missiles, all within a range of 1,000 to 1,500 km, targeting key Taiwan Air Force installations.
Recent activities noted by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense include the sighting of six ships and 33 PLA aircraft in the Taiwan Strait, with 14 crossing the median line.
Philippines' Response to South China Sea Dispute
The Philippines is preparing to engage in large-scale construction on nine controlled islands in the South China Sea, joining China, Taiwan, and Vietnam in the territorial expansion race. Announced by the country's armed forces commander-in-chief, this initiative aims to fortify Philippine claims and presence in the disputed area.
Speculation of such modernization efforts began in December of the previous year when local politicians advocated for construction on the Second Thomas Shoal. Additionally, a new coast guard station was established on Thitu Island, signaling a strategic shift under the current administration compared to the inactivity during former President Rodrigo Duterte's tenure.
This move by the Philippines aims to counteract the advancements made by the PRC, Vietnam, and Taiwan in strengthening their positions on the islands. The Philippines' strategy likely involves creating reclaimed territories for expansion and constructing military installations like coast guard garrisons for enhanced surveillance of PLA activities.
Assessment:
These actions will almost certainly provoke a strong response from China, which claims sovereignty over the contested territories. The anticipated large-scale construction by the Philippines will almost certainly escalate tensions in the South China Sea, especially considering China's history of expelling Filipino fishermen from the region.
Russo-Chinese Defense Negotiations
Recent negotiations between the Russian and Chinese defense ministers, Army General Sergei Shoigu of Russia and Admiral Dong Jun of China, have underscored the strengthening strategic partnership between the two nations. Conducted via video link, these talks highlight a pivotal moment in Russo-Chinese relations, which are described as experiencing their "best period in history."
Key Highlights of the Negotiations:
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