ALCON INTSUM #015: Amateurs Study Strategy, Professionals Study Logistics
Understand your Adversary.
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwan is enhancing its logistical capabilities in anticipation of potential conflicts, focusing on strengthening military transportation through discussions with the Taiwan Railways Administration. This includes acquiring a new diesel-electric locomotive, R200, expected to improve transport efficiency significantly.
Tensions persist in the East China Sea due to the territorial dispute over the Senkaku Islands between China and Japan, with recent Chinese military activities heightening concerns.
North Korea continues its weapons testing, demonstrating advancements in missile technology, which does not seem to impact regional security negatively, according to official statements.
In the Middle East, various factions report continued resistance operations.
In Europe, the situation in Ukraine shows ongoing hostilities and strategic movements, particularly near Kupyansk, indicating a possible build-up for a significant Russian offensive.
INDO PACIFIC
Taiwan Logistical Preparations for War
The Taiwan Ministry of Defense is in discussions with the Taiwan Railways Administration to enhance the military's transportation capabilities. These enhancements include upgrades to transport equipment, bridge infrastructure, security measures, and cargo handling training, with a comprehensive schedule of joint activities planned for the year.
In efforts to fulfill the military's logistical needs for exercises and training, the railways administration is assessing ways to augment the effectiveness and capacity of military transport. A significant development in this initiative is the acquisition of a new diesel-electric locomotive, R200, slated for testing in February and expected to enter service in March. The addition of this locomotive is anticipated to decrease travel times and increase the load capacity of transported goods.
The Defense Department has highlighted the strategic importance of rail transport for military equipment, specifically mentioning the future movement of American M142 HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) and 105-mm artillery systems via the rail network.
Assessment:
Taiwan is making significant efforts to improve its logistical capabilities in preparation for any future conflicts, acknowledging that the efficient transportation of ammunition and military equipment is crucial. It is highly likely that these improvements will play a vital role in determining the outcome and length of any potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
The anticipated introduction of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to Taiwan could pose a considerable challenge to China. It is almost certain that China would need to monitor these mobile rocket systems closely, requiring constant surveillance of their movements. This development could possibly allow the United States to exert more influence over Beijing by using Taiwan's enhanced defensive capabilities as a strategic advantage.
At the same time, it is probable that China is expanding its satellite network to improve its surveillance capabilities across Taiwan and the broader Pacific region. This expansion indicates that China is very likely trying to ensure it has comprehensive monitoring capabilities, aiming to maintain its strategic position in the area.
Chinese Military Bloggers Provide PLAN Fleet for 2035
The overview of the Chinese Navy's surface combat vessels from 2022 to 2035, as illustrated by "Xige Xi," includes various significant assets such as the Type 076 "light aircraft carrier," the Type 052E destroyer, and even arsenal ships. Given these developments, it seems likely that by 2035, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier exceeding 100,000 tons could have been launched or commissioned.
East China Sea Simmers
The East China Sea, alongside the often-discussed instability in Southeast Asia, emerges as another region under the spotlight due to the territorial dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands. Reports from Kyodo, based on unnamed sources, indicate that since January, the Chinese coast guard has been broadcasting radio messages to Japanese aircraft pilots, warning them to vacate what China considers its airspace over the contested islands. These aircraft belong to the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and are operating within China's Air Defense Identification Zone, a space that sees an overlap with Japanese air defense due to the ongoing territorial dispute.
In response to these warnings, Japanese officials have reportedly used diplomatic channels to communicate to the People's Republic of China that such messages are deemed unacceptable. However, in an effort to avoid further straining the already tense relations, Japan has chosen not to publicize the actions of the Chinese coast guard.
Furthermore, it has been disclosed by Japanese sources that a decision was made last year to maintain a daily presence of Chinese coast guard ships near the Senkaku Islands. Notably, in 2023, Chinese ships marked their presence in the region for 352 days, setting a new record.
Analyst Comment:
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