ALCON INTSUM #016: PLA Eastern Command War Preparations, Taiwanese Intelligence Operations Leaked
Understand your Adversary
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
Chinese state media have reported on the preparedness of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for potential conflict, with provincial representatives visiting the Eastern Theater Command and pledging support.
In Taiwan, a security breach involving leaked documents from the Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) has exposed intelligence operations against China, raising concerns over national security and espionage tactics.
Russia's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs outlined the country's strategic partnerships with China and North Korea
INDO PACIFIC
Chinese State Media Reports PLA Preparedness Towards War
Reports from Chinese state media indicate that representatives from the Anhui, Fujian, and Jiangxi provincial committees visited the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army. During their visit, they met with General Lin Xianyang, the commander of the Eastern Theater Command, and pledged their full support for the command's preparedness efforts towards war.
The Eastern Theater Command oversees military operations in several regions, including the provinces of Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and the cities of Shanghai, Guangdong, Shantou, Chaozhou, and Meizhou. This command is also charged with orchestrating military activities concerning Taiwan.
China Showcases New Mini ATGM
At the WDS-2024 exhibition in Riyadh, China showcased the QN-202, a compact anti-tank missile system. This missile is designed to target and neutralize light armored vehicles such as transport, reconnaissance vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles, which can move at speeds of up to 61 km/h and are within the size range of 4.6x2.3x2.3 meters. The QN-202 can pierce through armor that is up to 80 mm thick.
The missile system can be quickly prepared for firing, taking just 15 seconds to move from its stowed position to being ready to launch. The missile itself measures 40 mm in diameter and 650 mm in length, with the missile and launcher together weighing 4.5 kg.
It has a maximum range of 2,000 meters and boasts a high accuracy rate, with an 80% chance of hitting both stationary and moving targets. Additionally, the system is versatile, as it can be installed on various unmanned platforms, including drones and vehicles.
Taiwanese Intelligence Operations Leaked
A significant security breach involving the leak of sensitive documents on a hacker forum, BreachForums, has sparked concerns over national security. These documents, allegedly linked to Taiwan's Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB), detail intelligence operations targeted against China. The situation has prompted an investigation by the MIB, which is yet to confirm the authenticity of the leaked information.
Among the revelations is a strategy to launch a podcast featuring Chinese residents in Taiwan, ostensibly to discuss cultural differences across the Taiwan Strait. However, it's suggested that the initiative aims to recruit individuals capable of penetrating valuable information circles for espionage purposes. Following the leak, the implicated podcast studios have either distanced themselves from the MIB or quickly deactivated their online presence.
The leaked documents also expose efforts by Taiwan's spy agency to gather data on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China. This operation targets military personnel and their spouses, employing popular social media and dating platforms like Tencent QQ, Momo, WeChat, and Tantan as tools for intelligence collection.
Russia Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Spells Out Partnership with China and North Korea
In an interview with Kommersant newspaper on February 7, 2024, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, A.Yu. Rudenko, discussed the dynamics of Russia's international relations, focusing on its partnerships with China, North Korea, and its positioning within the Asian region and beyond.
Russia and China have significantly moved away from relying on the Western-centric financial system, now conducting over 90% of their bilateral trade using their national currencies. This shift reflects both countries' intent to fortify their economic cooperation against what they perceive as hostile restrictions from unfriendly states.
The longstanding visa-free regime for group tourism between Russia and China, in place since 2000, had only been interrupted by the pandemic and has resumed following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.
Regarding North Korea, Rudenko emphasized the deep historical roots and the importance of the relationship between the two countries. He asserted that the ongoing development of Russian-North Korean ties is beneficial for both nations and aids in maintaining peace and security in Northeast Asia.
On the broader Asian context, Rudenko noted that most of the region, aside from a few American allies, has remained detached from the Ukrainian crisis, focusing instead on regional stability and balance of power, where Russia is seen as a reliable partner.
Finally, Rudenko clarified that Russia's engagement with Asia-Pacific countries is not a pivot resulting from severed ties with Western nations. Instead, it's part of Russia's longstanding approach as a Eurasian power committed to developing comprehensive cooperation within the region.
MIDDLE EAST
Axis of Resistance Tactical Update
On February 6, 2024, a series of military actions were reported against US-Israeli forces:
The Yemeni Armed Forces claimed responsibility for attacks on the American "Star Nasia" and the British "Morning Tide" ships, employing anti-ship missiles in both instances.
The Al-Qassam Brigades, operating within Palestinian territories, conducted multiple operations:
An Apache helicopter was targeted west of Gaza City with a SAM-7 missile in a joint operation with Mujahideen brigades.
A D9 bulldozer was destroyed with a "Shoaz" explosive near Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip.
There were reports of partially destroying 2 Merkava tanks, 2 APCs, and 1 D9 bulldozer in different battle zones across the Gaza Strip.
A mortar shell attack was launched against an Israeli Defense Forces (IOF) operations command center in Tal Al-Hawa, Gaza City.
A TBG anti-fortification rocket targeted a group of Israeli soldiers, resulting in casualties in the Hawwaz area near Khan Yunis.
Sniping incidents led to the death of an Israeli officer and soldier west of Gaza City.
The Al-Quds Brigades reported:
Engaging a Merkava tank with RPGs and destroying a military vehicle with a "Thaqib - Barrel" explosive device around the Haidar roundabout, both actions occurring west of Gaza.
Launching an "85 anti-tank" rocket at an IOF force in a residential area and a TBG anti-fortification rocket at an IOF force in a house, both in Gaza City and Khan Yunis respectively, causing casualties.
The Al-Aqsa Brigades targeted a D9 bulldozer with an explosive device near Khan Yunis.
The Mujahideen Brigades:
Launched a missile barrage at the occupied “Yad Mordechai” in the northern Gaza Strip.
Directly hit a Merkava tank with an anti-tank rocket near the Jawazat area, Gaza City.
Engaged in clashes with IOF forces in western Gaza City using a variety of weapons.
Hezbollah reported a series of rocket and artillery attacks targeting Israeli military positions and installations, including the Rameem base, Jal Al-Alam site, Al-Marj site, Beit Hillel battalion headquarters, Ruwaysat Al-Alam site in Shabaa Farms, al-Ramtha site, al-Samaqa site in Kafr Chouba hills, and espionage equipment at Ruwaysat Al-Alam, indicating a broad and strategic engagement across different fronts.
United States Defence Intelligence Agency Assesses Yemen’s Drones
The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has released infographics that provide an overview of the drones and missiles believed to have been utilized by Yemen's AnsarAllah in the ongoing conflict. It's important to note that these estimates from the US are not claimed to be entirely accurate, complete, or correct but offer a perspective on the capabilities involved.
Yemen's drone arsenal, inspired by Iranian designs, includes:
The Sammad drone (similar to Iran's Sayad), with a range of 1,800 km.
The Waid-2 drone (analogous to Iran's Shahed-136), with a range of 2,500 km.
The Waid-1 drone (comparable to Iran's Shahed-131), with a range of 900 km.
In terms of ballistic missiles, also based on Iranian models, Yemen has deployed:
The Burkan-3 missile (related to Iran's Qiam/Rezvan), with a range of 1,200 km.
The Asif missile (akin to Iran's Khalije Fars), with a range of 400 km.
The Quds-4 missile (similar to Iran's Paveh), with a range of 2,000 km.
Additionally, Yemen has utilized the Saqr surface-to-air defense missile (based on Iran's 358-SAM), capable of reaching targets up to 150 km away.
Analyst Comment:
This information, as provided by the DIA, represents only a segment of Yemen's comprehensive missile and drone arsenal, which includes many more weapons, some of which remain undisclosed.
EUROPE
Ukraine Russian Threat Reporting
In the Kherson region, Ukrainian forces are defending Krynki against Russian attacks. The situation remains challenging for both sides, with Russian forces launching artillery and personnel strikes across the right bank and attempting to conduct operations there. Ukrainian forces have adapted by dispersing their drone operators and artillery, no longer solely concentrating on Krynki.
Near Rabotino in the Zaporozhye area, Ukrainian defenses thwarted Russian reconnaissance efforts to advance by setting up defensive barriers, which Russian forces attempted to dismantle with fire.
In the South Donetsk region, particularly around Ugledar, Russian forces used heavy ordnance against Ukrainian defensive minefields. There are indications that Russian forces are preparing for a new offensive phase. In the Maryinka sector, Russian advances to the eastern outskirts of Novomikhaylovka forced Ukrainian defenders into protective positions. Russian military efforts are focused on eliminating these defensive spots to secure their rear positions. Near Maryinka, the discovery of casualties highlights the grim realities of the conflict. A Russian advance towards Kurakhovo from Maryinka is currently halted, acknowledging the strategic risk without securing gains in Krasnogorovka.
In Donetsk, intense urban combat is reported in Avdeyevka, with Russian forces attempting to isolate strategic locations within the city. Russian troops have captured a platoon stronghold and are establishing control in critical areas, facing resistance from Ukrainian drones and artillery.
The Bakhmut area experiences a deceptive calm on its northern front near Bogdanovka, with Russian forces actively employing drones to locate Ukrainian firing positions.
In the Svatovo sector, within the Liman area, the situation near Yampolovka is described as critical by Ukrainian forces facing a robust Russian advance, particularly towards Terny, with progress reported up to 800m per day. Russian forces are applying significant pressure, with a substantial deployment of equipment and personnel. The dominance of Russian artillery is making it challenging for Ukrainian forces to operate effectively.
On the northern flank near Sinkovka in the Kupyansk sector, Russian efforts to bypass Ukrainian fortifications under the protection of artillery and aviation are noted. On the southern flank, Russian positions are reinforced near Tabayevka and Kotlyarovka.
Cross-border shelling by Ukrainian forces in the Bryansk region resulted in casualties among Russian border guards. In Donetsk, a drone attack targeted a city bus, fortunately without causing injuries. In Belgorod, several Ukrainian UAVs were intercepted and neutralized.
A notable attack by Russian forces in the Kharkov region targeted a private hotel, believed to be accommodating up to 50 Ukrainian militants, possibly members of the Kraken national formation.