ALCON INTSUM #12: Russian Naval Might Flexes in South China Sea, North Korean Missiles Soar, and Middle East Tensions Escalate with Drone Attacks on U.S. Forces
Understand your Adversary.
Bottom Line Up Front:
Indo Pacific
Russian Naval Exercises in the South China Sea: The Russian Pacific Fleet's frigate “Marshal Shaposhnikov” executed anti-submarine warfare exercises, indicating heightened Russian naval activity in this strategically vital region.
North Korean Missile Test: North Korea successfully tested a new submarine-launched cruise missile, showcasing its advancing missile capabilities and strategic reach.
North Korean Response to Cyber Alliance Exercises: North Korea's condemnation of U.S.-South Korea cyber exercises reflects its ongoing sensitivity to regional military cooperation involving the U.S.
India's Position on Russian Military Supplies: India is cautiously seeking to reduce its dependence on Russian arms, balancing geopolitical pressures with its defense needs.
Middle East
Threat Assessment: Attack on U.S. Base in Jordan: A drone attack on a U.S. installation in Jordan, claimed by Kataib Hezbollah, marks a significant escalation in hostilities involving U.S. forces in the region.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq's Military Activities: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq's attacks on multiple U.S. bases demonstrate its continued capabilities and willingness to engage in hostile actions.
Europe
Russian Armed Forces Threat Update and Ukraine Regional Developments: Russian military advances in several key areas in Ukraine indicate a sustained offensive strategy, amidst robust resistance and counteractions by Ukrainian forces.
Indo Pacific
Russian Naval Exercises in the South China Sea
The Russian Pacific Fleet's frigate “Marshal Shaposhnikov” conducted anti-submarine warfare exercises in the South China Sea. These exercises involved the deployment of a Ka-27 deck helicopter to search for a simulated enemy submarine. The frigate engaged the mock target with torpedoes and anti-submarine depth charges.
North Korean Missile Test
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversaw the test firing of a new strategic submarine-launched cruise missile, the Pulhwasal-3-31, on January 28. The missile flight, which covered the Sea of Japan, lasted 7,421 seconds and 7,445 seconds respectively, culminating in a successful strike on an island target.
North Korean Response to Cyber Alliance Exercises
North Korea's official news agency, KCNA, condemned the Cyber Alliance exercises conducted between January 15 and 26, which involved the United States and South Korea. Pyongyang described these exercises as reckless military actions, alleging that they aim to provoke a cyber war against North Korea. Additionally, the DPRK reiterated its stance on its modern military equipment, claiming it is not merely for show, and issued a warning to Washington and Seoul against igniting a conflict.
India's Position on Russian Military Supplies
According to Indian sources, there is a growing inclination within India to reduce its dependency on Russia as its primary arms supplier. This shift is attributed to Russia's diminished capacity to supply ammunition and spare parts, a consequence of its involvement in the war in Ukraine. However, Indian officials highlighted the need for a balanced approach to avoid driving Moscow closer to Beijing. Despite initial disruptions caused by the Ukrainian conflict, the supply of Russian arms to India has largely stabilized, but concerns remain.
Middle East
Threat Assessment: Attack on U.S. Base in Jordan
- Analysis by J. M. Larrier
Earlier today, USCENTCOM released a statement confirming that a one-way attack drone struck a U.S. installation in Rukban, Jordan, near the Syrian border, resulting in the deaths of three U.S. service members. Additionally, 34 other personnel were injured, some requiring evacuation due to the severity of their injuries. While the official statement did not specify the base, it is reported that Tower 22, a facility on the Syria-Jordan border, was the target. This installation reportedly housed 350 U.S. Army and Air Force personnel. Kataib Hezbollah, a group within the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), has claimed responsibility for the attack.
There is uncertainty about the exact location of the attacks, with Jordanian media suggesting they occurred at the Al-Tanf garrison in Syria. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin responded to the attacks, attributing them to Iran-backed militias and stating that the U.S. would respond at a time and place of its choosing. Following a moment of silence at a political event, President Biden also indicated a response, saying, “we shall respond.”
Iran has denied involvement in these attacks, describing them as retaliatory actions by groups aligned with their “Axis of Resistance.” Despite the lack of a U.S. response thus far, there has been observed activity of numerous USAF KC-135R tankers crossing the Atlantic, as viewed on open-source flight tracking.
Amidst these developments, there have been increased calls for President Biden to directly strike Iran, which is believed to be the sponsor of the non-state actors behind the attack.
Analyst Comment: Currently, around 3,000 U.S. troops are deployed in Jordan, with the contingent at Tower 22 specifically tasked with an "advise and assist" mission. Tower 22, home to American personnel specializing in engineering, aviation, logistics, and security, is situated 20 kilometers away from the Al-Tanf garrison in Syria. At this garrison, U.S. forces work in conjunction with local units to counter the Islamic State. At the time of the recent attack, Tower 22 was housing approximately 350 members of the U.S. Army and Air Force. This installation serves as a key transit point to the Al-Tanf garrison across the border in Syria.
Furthermore, located in Jordan is Operation Gallant Phoenix (OGP), a multinational intelligence coalition formed in 2013 focused on defeating ISIS.
Notably, Iranian naval vessels, the MV Behshad and the IRIS Alboriz, are still operational in the Gulf of Aden.
Assessment: This attack, the first to result in U.S. fatalities since October 7, appears
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