ALCON INTSUM #19: Sabotage, Influence Operations and Preparations for War
Understand your Adversary
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
INDO PACIFIC
Discussions on amending the Philippines' constitution are underway, led by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., focusing on economic regulations to facilitate international partnerships but raising concerns over potential political implications.
Opposition from former President Rodrigo Duterte and his followers to the constitutional amendments suggests a political struggle ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections.
The Philippines' geopolitical positioning between China and the U.S. remains a critical factor, with shifts in alliance potentially influencing regional dynamics.
IISS Report: China Preparing for ‘Protracted’ War
China is adapting its military approach for prolonged conflict in the Indo-Pacific, drawing lessons from global conflicts and focusing on modern warfare techniques.
The country's defense budget continues to grow, affecting regional military spending and indicating a long-term strategy for military preparedness.
Possible Influence Operations in the Solomon Islands
The United Party of the Solomon Islands proposes revisiting the security agreement with China, aiming to reduce tensions without severing development ties, amidst concerns over potential Chinese influence in the upcoming elections.
MIDDLE EAST
The IRGC conducted a simulated attack on a mock Israeli base using Emad MRBMs, showcasing Iran's military capabilities and strategic messaging.
An explosion disrupted a gas pipeline in Iran, with the cause unknown and the possibility of sabotage being considered.
EUROPE
The US Senate approved substantial security assistance for Ukraine, essential for maintaining its defense against Russian military strategies.
Reports of inflated Ukrainian casualties by Russian sources and Kremlin's legal assertions over NATO officials highlight ongoing information and diplomatic warfare.
US sanctions impact Russia's attempts to navigate the G7 oil cap, with ongoing conflicts indicating a sustained military engagement in Ukraine.
INDO PACIFIC
Filipino Political Climate: An Analysis
The political landscape in the Philippines is facing challenges as discussions emerge about amending the country's constitution. These discussions, championed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., are primarily focused on modifying economic regulations to enable partnerships with international state-owned enterprises for marine resource development. Critics, however, fear that these changes might also extend to political clauses, potentially increasing the tenure of elected officials. This concern stems from historical precedents set by Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who extended his rule by altering similar laws.
The push for constitutional reform is seen by some as a strategic move ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections. Former President Rodrigo Duterte, a critic of the amendments, and his followers are keen on regaining influence, opposing the Marcos Jr.'s proposals which they argue could enhance his political standing and possibly extend his presidency. The proposals are presented as measures to improve the nation's struggling economy.
Historically, efforts to amend the constitution have largely been unsuccessful, and it remains uncertain if the current initiative will break this pattern. The political strength of Duterte's faction could pose a significant challenge to the reform efforts.
Furthermore, this internal political strife unfolds as the Philippines finds itself at the center of a broader geopolitical contest between China and the United States for regional influence. Duterte's tenure was noted for its China-friendly policies, contrasting with the current administration's approach of aligning more closely with the U.S. This shift has sparked criticism from Duterte's allies and certain business sectors, accusing Marcos Jr. of antagonizing China.
Analyst Comment:
The ongoing elite disputes are likely to impact the Philippines' future relations with both China and the U.S., although the immediate effects may not be apparent. With parliamentary elections on the horizon and a presidential election in 2028, where Sara Duterte, representing the Duterte family, is expected to run, the situation remains dynamic. Both Beijing and Washington are anticipated to closely monitor and possibly influence the developments in the Philippines.
IISS Report: China Preparing for ‘Protracted’ War
China is adjusting its military strategies and laws to get ready for a long-lasting conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. This change is partly influenced by observations of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine. According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), China is making it easier for former soldiers and reservists to rejoin the military and is allowing the military to use civilian buildings and supplies. This change in approach suggests that China is moving away from the expectation of quick victories towards being prepared for longer disputes.
This shift comes against a backdrop of increasing global tensions, including ongoing conflicts and political unrest in various regions, aggressive moves by China towards Taiwan and the South China Sea, and a general increase in global defense spending. The world's military expenditure is expected to rise to over $2.2 trillion, continuing an upward trend.
China's defense budget has been increasing for 29 consecutive years, with a 5.4% rise in 2023, indicating its commitment to expanding its military capabilities, including the development of advanced weapons such as hypersonic glide vehicles. This increase in China's defense spending is influencing other countries in East Asia, such as Taiwan and Japan, to also raise their defense budgets in response to China's growing military presence.
The IISS report also discusses China's military progress in comparison to Russia's experiences, highlighting China's influential position in global military trends. Despite Russia's significant military spending and reserves, its efforts in Ukraine have resulted in considerable losses without meeting its objectives. However, Russia's military could continue its current level of engagement for another three years, even with equipment that is not as advanced.
Analyst Comment:
Learning from various global conflicts, such as those following 9/11, China has evolved its military strategies, embracing ideas like 'intelligentization' and 'systems destruction warfare.' It's expected that Chinese strategists will closely study the Ukraine conflict, much like they have with past Western engagements, to glean valuable insights.
Possible Influence Operations on the Horizon in the Solomon Islands
The United Party of the Solomon Islands has pledged to reconsider the country's security agreement with China should they win power. This agreement, signed in April 2022, has caused concern among the Solomon Islands' traditional allies, including Australia, New Zealand, and the United States, due to fears it might lead to a Chinese naval base in the Pacific. Peter Kenilorea Jr, leader of the United Party, has voiced concerns in the Solomon Star newspaper that the pact with China has unnecessarily heightened tensions within the region and domestically.
Kenilorea believes that terminating the agreement could ease these tensions. However, he clarifies that the goal is not to sever development ties with China but to diversify the Solomon Islands' international relationships by inviting more foreign embassies, including reestablishing connections with Taiwan. The national election in the Solomon Islands is scheduled for 17 April.
Analyst Comment:
In response to these developments, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is likely to engage in political interference to sway the election against this candidate. This could involve a range of tactics aimed at preserving their strategic interests in the Solomon Islands and maintaining the security pact.
MIDDLE EAST
IRGC Simulates Attack on Israeli Base
An exercise was conducted involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) using Emad medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) to simulate strikes on a mock Israeli airbase. The exercise also included Haj Qasem and Kheibar Shekan MRBMs. The IRGC, part of Iran's armed forces, often conducts military drills to demonstrate its capabilities. These exercises can serve multiple purposes, including military readiness, strategic messaging to potential adversaries, and domestic political signaling.
Footage of the exercise below:
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