FLASH REPORT: Hamas Proposes a Revised Deal, New Saudi Demands
Ceasefire Crossroads: Will Hamas' Proposal and Saudi Demands Reshape Middle Eastern Diplomacy?
By J. M. Larrier - Defense Bulletin
Bottom Line Up Front
Hamas released its own deal that called for a four and a half month ceasefire, all the hostages freed, and a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip.
Just a few hours later, Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas’ proposed deal.
“Only total victory will allow us to restore security in Israel, both in the north and the south.”
He also said that victory was months away.
Situation
Last night, before Hamas proposed this deal, the Saudis came forward with a long awaited statement on the future of rapprochement talks with Israel. In a release from their Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Saudi Arabia called for Israel to fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip, an Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state along the 1967 lines, and a recognition by the UN Security Council of the state, “..with East Jerusalem as its capital”.
Analyst Comment:
It’s unclear if this deal also required the Israelis to give Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, a reprieve. Something that has been floated in the past week.
The rejection of the deal proposed by Hamas was to be expected. The Qatari-Egyptian brokered negotiations are still ongoing.
Analyst Assessment:
Hamas has derailed the last two negotiations and violated the terms of the original ceasefire. Which likely indicates that Hamas only seeks to gain a temporary reprieve from IDF pressure. They need an operational pause, where they can attempt to replenish and further consolidate inside what territory they still control, and a full Israeli withdrawal would allow them to consolidate back into areas previously held by the IDF. This is likely the reason why Israel rejected the deal.
Note:
There is a massive civilian population that also urgently needs to resume a normal way of life and/or find refuge somewhere that isn’t currently a warzone.
The recent Saudi statement could make a significant Israeli deescalation inside of Gaza a realistic possibility.
Some caveats do apply here:
Under the current leadership, Israel is unlikely to agree to any form of ceasefire that requires a full withdrawal from Gaza
It is a possibility that we could see increased calls for Benjamin Netanyahu’s exit from government domestically and on the international stage.
The Saudis may be flexible on the other demands should the Israelis fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
The Saudis stated twice that an acknowledgment of the Palestinian state must happen before rapprochement talks can resume, and this is a likely indicator of the “firm position” the Saudis hold.
Due to the diplomatic and economic benefits of a Saud-Israeli normalization of relations , the now concrete Saudi position, and the United States’ role in these talks, there is a realistic possibility that we could see the U.S. pressure the Israelis to abide by the Saudi demands, in the hopes that it can once again preside over rapprochement talks.