FLASH REPORT: Houthi Strikes Escalate in the Red Sea Amidst Iran's Intensifying Regional Strategy - Assessing Risks of Further Escalation
As the attacks in the Red Sea draw further attention from the global community, are we about to see a more coordinated operational approach from Iran and the Houthis?
Written by Analyst J.
Two days ago, the governments of Albania, Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Guinea-Bissau, Hungary, Italy, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, North Macedonia, Poland, Republic of Korea, Romania, United Kingdom, and the United States came out with a joint statement voicing their support for the ongoing strikes carried out by the United States and the UK. The statement highlighted the now thirty-plus attacks on commercial and naval vessels in the Red Sea and the threat that said attacks have on global trade.
These strikes have now been made subordinate to the joint UK-U.S. operational framework of “Poseidon Archer”, which in turn is subordinate to the ongoing “Operation Prosperity Guardian”.
Out of the long list of nations who cosigned the aforementioned statement, only two, the U.S. and the UK, have participated in strikes on Houthi military infrastructure and assets. A number of nations, including Bahrain, the Netherlands, and others, have participated in supporting roles only.
Five days ago, after the fourth U.S. “self defense” strike within Houthi controlled areas in Yemen, White house NSC CSC John Kirby said that the DOD believes “that they have had good effects on degrading some of these Houthi capabilities.”
The Houthis claim that their ability to carry out strikes on commercial and naval shipping has not been impeded, and have not only vowed to respond by striking U.S. bases and infrastructure in the region, but have also continued their strike campaign on vessels transiting the key shipping lane.
“Arguably the most important factor here is Iran's calculated approach to keeping the conflict below the threshold of conventional war.”
Meanwhile, Iran has directly struck the city of Erbil in Iraq as well as sites in Pakistan and Syria, and have claimed it (strike in Erbil, Iraq) as retaliation for Mossad’s alleged involvement in the Kerman attacks; saying that the strikes should also be a strong message to those who support what they perceive to be terrorist entities. The United States and Israel.
Analyst Comment:
One thing on everyone’s mind has been the potential for the ongoing limited but connected conflicts in the Middle East to boil over into a conventional region-wide war that pit state against state.
In an earlier piece, “Escalation In The Red Sea”, I said that “Iran’s use of non-state actors to affect change in the region keeps the conflict below the threshold of conventional state on state warfare.”
Arguably the most important factor here is Iran's calculated approach to keeping the conflict below the threshold of conventional war. Iran has, thus far, exhibited restraint by directly involving its conventional forces only twice, including an alleged drone strike on a vessel in the Indian Ocean. The strikes on Erbil, Iraq, and sites in Pakistan and Syria, attributed to retaliation against Mossad's alleged involvement in the
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