Grey Zone SITREP 08 Oct 2023
If China does eventually invade Taiwan, when is it likely to happen? We've revised our assessment.
Hey team,
This week's newsletter covers a variety of topics related to China's military ambitions and the potential for conflict over Taiwan.
China is a rising power with growing military ambitions. But how much of a threat does it pose to the United States and its allies? We will explore three key questions:
How will China's decreasing population impact its military ambitions?
Why is the upcoming Taiwanese election so important in assessing the risk of war over Taiwan?
If China does invade Taiwan, when will it happen?
We will also examine the possibility of a Chinese attack on Guam in the event of a US intervention in a conflict between China and Taiwan.
This is a critical time for understanding China's military ambitions and the potential for conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. By exploring these three key questions, we hope to shed light on this complex and important issue.
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The Future of the China Russia Partnership
Spies of the PRC operating in the West: What does this mean for you?
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Why Population has little impact on the Military Ambitions of China
China's decreasing population is not a major concern for its military ambitions. While China's fertility rate is below that of the United States, its starting population is much higher, so it will continue to have access to a larger number of soldiers in absolute terms for the foreseeable future. Additionally, China's military program is focused on effectiveness rather than meeting ideological targets, so its soldiers are likely to be qualitatively superior as well.
Why the Taiwanese election is important for assessing the chance of war over Taiwan
The 2024 Taiwanese elections are important for assessing the chance of war over Taiwan because the outcome of the election will determine the political direction of Taiwan. If the KMT wins, an invasion is very unlikely, as the KMT's goal is integration/peace with China. However, if the DPP wins, an invasion is more likely, as the DPP aims for formal independence, which the CCP will not allow.
The United States also plays a role in the situation. The US supports the DPP, and it is possible that the US would prefer a (limited?) war over Taiwan in order to remove the threat of China taking over Taiwan.
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If China Invades Taiwan, when will it happen?
There is a remote chance that China will invade Taiwan in 2025. However, the possibility becomes more realistic in 2030 and is likely by 2035.
There are two main reasons for this. First, China is rapidly militarizing and is expected to have a significant military advantage over the United States in the Taiwan Strait by 2035. Second, the United States is seen by China as a threat that is trying to force China's hand on Taiwan.
The United States has been increasing its military presence in the Taiwan Strait and has been selling arms to Taiwan. This has led China to conclude that the United States is trying to prevent China from unifying with Taiwan.
If China believes that the United States is trying to prevent China from unifying with Taiwan, it may be more likely to invade Taiwan.
However, it is important to note that China does not want to invade Taiwan. It would prefer to achieve unification through peaceful means and the likelihood of invasion likely rests on how China views the actions of the United States.
If the US came to Taiwan's Aid during a conflict with China, would China Attack the US?
It is important to note that this is a hypothetical scenario, and it is impossible to say with certainty what would happen if China attacked Taiwan and the US intervened. However, there are several reasons for thinking that China might attack Guam in particular, if the US were to directly attack China in that sort of scenario.
First, the US is likely going to try to shoot down Chinese planes, sink Chinese ships, and potentially even attack airbases and air defense sites in mainland China itself. In that context, China would not view attacking Guam as an escalation at all.
Second, Guam is likely to play a key role in a war over Taiwan, as it is a strategic location from which the US can operate ships and bombers.
Finally, the US government is acting as if they believe this is a strong possibility, as there is a lot of work being done on what's being called the Guam Defense System, which if fully implemented will cost billions.
ENDS.