Hey everyone,
I recently recorded another Podcast episode after a brief hiatus. In the episode, I talk with Ahmed Hassan, the CEO of Grey Dynamics, a premier private intelligence agency. We go deep into the world of intelligence as a profession. Ahmed is one of those "in-the-know" individuals, and we'll be discussing the ins and outs of this fascinating field in a way that's accessible to everyone. I've considered Ahmed a bit of a mentor when it comes to Intel as a business in the private sector, and he is a really knowledgable guy.
***GRAPHIC CONTENT WARNING BELOW***
Violence Escalating in Papua New Guinea: Will the West Intervene?
Violence has erupted in Papua New Guinea (PNG) over the past month with reports stating that over 150 people have been killed as a result of inter-tribal violence. Security forces have been sent in to calm the situation.
Enga Province, in the PNG Highlands, is a hotbed of tribal violence however, the issue has started to gain international attention due to footage appearing to show three naked men, bound and dragged behind a pickup truck. This footage has circulated on social media and has been picked up by media agencies.
Prime Minister James Marape condemned the violence last week, labeling it as "domestic terrorism," while Police Commissioner David Manning expressed the shock and dismay of the people of Papua New Guinea over the senseless killings in various parts of the Highlands region, especially in Enga province.
Manning further declared that security forces had been directed to employ any necessary means to apprehend armed individuals and to resort to lethal force when justified.
Experts have pointed out that pinpointing a definitive cause for the recent surge in violence is challenging, but they speculate that the conflict might have been exacerbated by a weakening of governmental authority and increased access to more powerful weaponry in the region.
According to Professor Philip Gibbs from the Divine Word University in Madang, the recent upsurge in violence appears akin to an uncontrolled bushfire, driven by a widespread sense of hopelessness and purposelessness, particularly among younger men.
Will the West Intervene?
Well, probably not. Although Australia has been requested to intervene, it’s likely that Australia will maintain a “wait and see approach”, receiving security briefings and situation updates. However, as PNG police are given more powers, Australia will probably assist in a train and advise capacity.
China attack on Taiwan Imminent?
A former official from the US National Security Council suggests that Chinese President Xi Jinping may soon take a page from Russian President Vladimir Putin's playbook by launching a military assault on Taiwan. Robert Spalding, a retired US Air Force brigadier general, expressed this viewpoint during an interview at the 32nd Economic Forum in Karpacz, Poland.
Spalding stated, "I believe that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is imminent. The more Xi Jinping imposes economic restrictions and limits the ability of US and multinational corporations to operate in China, the less reason it has to refrain from attacking Taiwan, as it is essentially driving a separation process."
Having served as the senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council during the Trump administration, Spalding argues that a new Cold War is already underway, and China is eager to demonstrate its strength.
"I believe that China perceives a diminishing reliance on its export-oriented economy, which will increasingly incentivize it to proceed with an invasion of Taiwan, a move Xi Jinping has already indicated," he explained. "China is expanding its superpower influence while attempting to isolate the US from its allies."
Analyst Comment.
A lot of these senior US military officers (both current and ex-serving) come out with these bold statements. Sure, sometimes the statements are credible, but I also get the impression that there are underlying agendas when these statements are made (aka more defence spending).
Hellscape: The Drone Swarm to Counter China
In the event of a potential conflict with the United States, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks underscores China's most significant advantage as its sheer "mass," encompassing a greater number of ships, missiles, and personnel. To counterbalance this advantage, the Defense Department is embarking on an initiative named "Replicator," aiming to produce a substantial quantity of affordable drones for deployment across air, sea, and land, numbering in the "multiple thousands" within the next two years.
These cost-effective drones, similar to those effectively used by Ukraine against Russia, can be manufactured in proximity to the battlefield at considerably lower expenses compared to conventional Defense Department weaponry. Hicks emphasized their compatibility with the principles of mission command, allowing decentralized innovation and success in battle. Furthermore, these drones can function as resilient, distributed systems, even when confronted with limited, intermittent, degraded, or denied bandwidth conditions, as Hicks stated during her remarks at the NDIA conference in Washington, D.C.
These drones also address a significant challenge facing the U.S. military in the Pacific in the event of a confrontation with China: the daunting prospect of numerous targets scattered across an expansive geographical expanse. To illustrate this challenge, Admiral John Aquilino, the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, quantified it as "1,000 targets for 24 hours."
INDOPACOM has been collaborating with DARPA on expediting the collection and integration of targeting data across the entire theater, surpassing the conventional timelines. This effort is executed through a program referred to as "Assault Breaker II," as Aquilino disclosed to the audience.
Aquilino highlighted the ongoing experimentation with unmanned capabilities within INDOPACOM over the past five to ten years, emphasizing their potential as an asymmetric advantage. Operational concepts currently under development aim to amplify the advantages in this theater, a context sometimes characterized by the term "hellscape."
Podcast with Grey Dynamics was bangout⚡️.