Grey Zone SITREP 11 AUG 23
Our weekly free situation report on the week's most underreported events taking place between peace and war.
Evening all,
Thanks for visiting this weeks Grey Zone Situation Report. As always, we are bringing you some of the underreported events from across the world so that you’re informed and ahead.
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Cole from ALCON.
Warning Signs: Taiwan Invasion by 2024?
Recent statements from a well-known investment expert have drawn attention to the increasing concerns over potential military aggression towards Taiwan. The expert, who has been vocal about China's policies, expressed his belief that an invasion of Taiwan could occur before the end of 2024.
The comments come amid growing tensions in the region. Taiwan has been governed independently of China since the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing views the island as part of its territory. The dispute over Taiwan is a global flashpoint, with most in the West considering it a self-governing nation. Beijing, meanwhile, has called for "reunification" with Taiwan, last year describing its status in a white paper as an "unalterable" part of China.
China's foreign ministry has also stated that Taiwan is an issue of Chinese "sovereignty and security" and warned against foreign interference. China's President, when confirming his third term this March, cited the need to "promote peaceful development of cross-strait relations" with Taiwan but stressed that his country should oppose "external forces" and pro-independence movements.
There were three highlighted signals of a forthcoming conflict between China and Taiwan:
Increased Military Drills: China has been ratcheting up its military drills around Taiwan. According to the expert, Beijing is close to completing its military exercises.
Sweeping Mainland Changes: Beijing has been making sweeping changes in "preparation for a potential war." This includes a new counter-espionage law, which expands the government's power to punish apparent threats to national security.
Marine Diesel Refining at Full Tilt: Despite a slowing economy, China has been "running marine diesel refining at full tilt." This is seen as a signal of increased demand for marine fuel.
Analyst Comment. None of us desire conflict, but the signs are indeed pointing in a worrisome direction. The evidence is clear in the increased military drills around Taiwan, sweeping mainland changes in preparation for potential conflict, and the full-tilt operation of marine diesel refining.
China Confirms PLA Activity Near Alaska
Last week's joint patrols by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China and Russian military near the Alaskan coast signal a significant geopolitical shift. In a strong message to the U.S., Chinese military expert Fu Qianshao stated that such far-sea patrols would continue, and the U.S. "should get used to it."
This cooperation highlights several critical trends:
China's Assertiveness: By comparing these patrols with U.S. Navy's freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, China emphasizes its stance that the U.S. has no exclusive right to maritime activities.
Russia-China Collaboration: The joint patrols signify an increased level of military cooperation between Russia and China, a challenge to U.S. dominance in the Pacific.
U.S. Response: While Ala
ska's senators expressed alarm, the Pentagon acknowledged that the activities were within international waters. This measured response shows a nuanced U.S. approach and underscores the principles of freedom of navigation.
China's state media rejected American warnings, using identical language to the military, arguing that America has no right to complain when it continues to enter Chinese waters without permission.
Russian and Chinese Military Defeat Simulated US Air Assault
Last week in the Pacific Ocean, Russian and Chinese naval forces came together for a joint exercise, showcasing their military coordination. They repelled a simulated air attack, and the whole operation seemed to be a well-rehearsed maneuver between two nations. But what does this mean for the rest of the world, especially the United States, who might have been the hypothetical "enemy" in this drill?
The joint naval exercise, known as Joint Sea 2022, was more than just a display of military strength. It was a clear message to the world that Russia and China are on the same page, working together in a way we've never seen before.
During the drill, the Russian and Chinese navies practiced defending against aerial assaults, tracking enemy submarines, and even conducting sea rescue exercises. They even exchanged helicopters, with Russian helicopters landing on Chinese ships and vice versa. This wasn't just a one-time event; the joint fleet has already covered over 4,000 nautical miles, navigating through various straits and seas.
Analyst Comment.
This is a sign of growing cooperation between Russia and China. They're not just talking about working together; they're actually doing it. This collaboration is happening at a time when relations between these countries and the United States are strained over issues like Taiwan and Ukraine.
Second, the location of these exercises is significant. The drills occurred near Alaska, and the U.S. even sent Navy destroyers to observe the fleet. This isn't the first time Russian and Chinese vessels have been spotted near Alaskan waters, and it's a clear indication that these nations are not afraid to show their presence close to American soil.
Some experts in the West are worried that this is just the beginning, and we can expect more joint military maneuvers from Russia and China in the future. Others, particularly in China, see this as an overreaction and argue that the U.S. is merely flexing its muscles.
West African Leaders Struggle with Crisis Response Following Niger Coup
In a time of critical unrest and mounting political tension, West African governments are grappling with a complicated crisis following the coup in Niger, where generals unseated the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. A standoff involving regional politics, potential military action, and international alliances has left leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) working urgently to find a clear way forward.
Last Thursday, officials announced the mobilization of a standby military force at an emergency summit in Abuja, Nigeria, hosted by Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, the chair of ECOWAS. Yet despite the dire language, speculation around the possibility of military intervention was met with ambiguity. As regional leaders insisted that "all options remain on the table," some analysts viewed the announcement as more symbolic than substantive, possibly employed as a "negotiating tactic."
The ECOWAS's standby force, comprising approximately 2,700 members, including infantry battalions led by Senegal and Nigeria, could be the core of this mobilization. Only a few nations, namely Senegal, Benin, Ivory Coast, and presumably Nigeria, have so far committed troops to any possible intervention, facing opposition and potential challenges from within and without the bloc.
Skepticism about military intervention is pronounced, particularly considering the potential support the Nigerien junta may receive from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso. Moreover, concerns for the safety of hundreds of U.S. and French troops stationed in Niger, and the perceived insufficiency of the ECOWAS force for the task, heighten the risk of such an approach.
Analyst Comment. The recent announcement regarding the mobilization of ECOWAS's standby force in response to the crisis in Niger may be more about "face-saving" than a genuine plan for immediate action. There's a prevailing sense that the proposed military force might be insufficient for the task at hand, particularly considering the potential risks to Bazoum and the complexity of a military mission. Concerns are also arising for the safety of U.S. and French troops stationed in the country. Looking at the broader picture, the ongoing situation could lead to a scenario reminiscent of Syria, fostering the expansion of terrorist groups in the Sahel region and emphasizing the difficulty of maintaining control without international cooperation.
Italy’s Decoupling from China
Italy's recent decision to distance itself from China's economic embrace is a move that's caught my attention. After Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's recent talks with US President Joe Biden, Italy seems to be taking a bold step back from its tight economic ties with China.
The discussions were part of NATO's efforts to "de-risk" or reduce economic activity with Beijing. Meloni's intention to cancel Italy's participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative, a trade and infrastructure partnership that Rome joined four years ago, is a significant move. But can Rome maintain "good relations with China" even as it drops Belt and Road? That's the question on everyone's mind.
China's Belt and Road Initiative, a modern version of the ancient Silk Road, has been a cornerstone of Chinese foreign policy. It's a program that drives relations with countries from the Pacific to Africa and, in Italy's case, into Europe.
Upon Meloni's return to Rome, her defense minister, Guido Crosetto, didn't mince words, describing Italy's Belt and Road participation as "improvised and atrocious." The challenge now, as Crosetto puts it, is "how to walk back without damaging relations."
The Meloni-Crosetto diplomatic duet reflects the complex and tricky strategy of dealing with China, a nation regarded as both an economic powerhouse and a military threat. Washington's policy seems to walk a fine line between cooperation on issues like trade and carbon emissions reduction and an adversarial approach toward China's international "coercive behavior."
Analyst Comment. In my opinion, Italy's decision to reevaluate its relationship with China is a step in the right direction. It's a move that recognizes the complexities of international relations and the need for a balanced approach. However, the path ahead is fraught with challenges, and the success of this new direction will depend on careful diplomacy and a clear understanding of Italy's national interests.