Grey Zone SITREP 14 JUL 23
Our weekly free situation report on the week's most underreported events taking place between peace and war.
Hello Everyone,
Welcome to our new subscribers! The Grey Zone Situation Report is a weekly digest, released every Friday, that brings you summaries of the week's most underreported events in the realm of Grey Zone conflict - the area that exists between peace and war.
This report serves as a tool to keep you informed about the events that could potentially impact you, and to help you anticipate what might be on the horizon.
Stay ahead of the curve.
Cheers,
The ALCON Intelligence Team.
Escalating Tensions with China OTP 11 - 14 July 23
The escalating tensions with China have been a focal point of global attention in recent times. The situation, marked by a complex interplay of military, economic, diplomatic, and cybersecurity dimensions, continues to evolve, raising concerns and prompting responses from the international community.
China has been ramping up its military activity around Taiwan, a move that has sent ripples of concern across the globe. In a recent display of force, China dispatched a large group of warplanes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. This significant escalation in the tensions between China and Taiwan is seen as a test of Taiwan's defense capabilities and a clear signal of China's military posturing.
Amidst these tensions, diplomatic efforts are underway to ease the situation. U.S. Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken, has been engaging in diplomatic talks with China's top diplomat, Wang Yi. These discussions, described as "candid and constructive," have touched on various regional and global issues, including peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. However, the talks have also underscored the stark differences between the two countries, with China urging the U.S. to stop suppressing it in economy, trade, science, and technology.
Adding another layer of complexity to the strained relations are the reports of potential Chinese cyberattacks targeting the U.S. and other countries. U.S. officials recently reported that Chinese hackers had penetrated the email accounts of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and other State and Commerce department officials.
Across the Atlantic, a report by the UK's Intelligence and Security Committee has criticized the UK's approach to China's "whole of state" assault on its economy, politics, civil infrastructure, and academia as completely inadequate. The report warns that without swift action, China could pose an existential threat to liberal democratic systems. There is likely to be a push in the UK for a coordinated response should China make inroads into the country.
The South China Sea, a hotspot for territorial disputes, has also been a flashpoint in the ongoing tensions. The U.S. has called on China to cease its routine harassment of vessels of other countries with claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. has reaffirmed its support for a 2016 arbitration ruling that concluded Beijing's claim to almost the entire South China Sea was groundless.
Analyst Comment
There's a high likelihood that China's show of force around Taiwan will intensify as they continue testing the resolve and response of Taiwan and its allies. However, a full-scale military confrontation is relatively unlikely within the next 30 days. It's more probable that we'll see increased surveillance and potential naval exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
As for economic matters, it's highly likely that China will continue to control critical war minerals in the short term, leading to escalating tensions over access to these resources. There might be initiatives in other countries to increase mining and production of these resources or find alternatives to minimize dependence on China.
North Korea Launches New ICBM Amid Concerns of Conflict as at 14 July 23
In a move that has sent shockwaves through the international community, North Korea has launched a new model of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), named the "Hwasong-18". This missile, reportedly capable of reaching the entire continental U.S., represents a significant advancement in North Korea's missile technology.
The missile was launched from the Pyongyang area and flew for 74 minutes before landing in the sea. This is the longest flight time ever for a North Korean missile, indicating a marked improvement in the country's missile capabilities.
The launch comes on the heels of threats made by North Korea against the U.S. military. North Korean state media has accused the U.S. of reconnaissance activities in the region and warned of "a series of stronger military offensive" until the U.S. and South Korea admit their "shameful defeat" and abandon their hostile policy towards North Korea.
The Hwasong-18 is believed to be a solid-fuel ICBM, which is harder to detect and intercept than liquid-fuel ICBMs. This development suggests that North Korea is making strides in its missile technology, posing a greater challenge to international efforts to monitor and mitigate the threat posed by the country's nuclear program.
The international community, including the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, has condemned the launch as a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions. The move has raised tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region.
The launch also comes amid escalating tensions between North and South Korea. There are concerns that North Korea is treating South Korea as a different and hostile country, rather than part of the same nation divided for some time. This is seen as a significant shift in inter-Korean relations.
Analyst Comment.
In my view, North Korea's recent actions and the rhetoric they've been using seem to follow a certain pattern. It appears they're exaggerating the threats from outside forces as a way to rally support within their own borders and justify their weapons testing. I also can't help but think that the timing of their missile launch was strategically planned to cause disruption during the recent NATO summit, where leaders from South Korea and Japan were set to have discussions.
Looking ahead, it's anticipated that North Korea will showcase more of their military hardware towards the end of July. This is when they commemorate the end of the Korean War, an event they refer to as Victory Day.
ENDS