Grey Zone SITREP 21 July 23
Our weekly free situation report on the week's most underreported events taking place between peace and war.
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Key Points
Ely Ratner, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, reported successful outcomes from the U.S.'s Indo-Pacific strategy, including stronger regional alliances and increased defense cooperation with key countries.
Despite the U.S.'s withdrawal from Afghanistan, Ratner reassured Congress of the U.S.'s commitment to its Indo-Pacific strategy, which includes economic, diplomatic, and human rights aspects.
The U.S.'s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region is demonstrated through military exercises and deployments, such as the recent deployment of the USS Illinois and the trilateral Exercise Southern Jackaroo.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken's upcoming visit to Tonga, New Zealand, and Australia signifies the U.S.'s intensified focus on the Indo-Pacific, aiming to strengthen diplomatic ties and foster cooperation in various areas.
Amid US-China tensions, China's ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, proposed a three-pronged approach to improve relations, but ongoing tensions over Taiwan's international engagements highlight the challenges ahead.
PACIFIC: The West’s Strategy in the Indo-Pacific Continues to Bear Fruit
Ely Ratner, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, recently informed the U.S. Congress that the country's strategy in the Indo-Pacific region is producing positive results. He stressed that the U.S. is dedicated to keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open, a critical part of the nation's security strategy.
Ratner pointed out the improvements made in building stronger alliances and partnerships in the region. He also noted the increased defense cooperation with important countries like Japan, Australia, and India. Furthermore, he discussed the U.S.'s actions to counter China's growing influence in the region, including the formation of the China Task Force, which aims to create a holistic strategy to address the challenges presented by China.
Despite the U.S.'s recent withdrawal from Afghanistan, which has led to questions about the country's commitment to its allies, Ratner reassured Congress of the U.S.'s continued dedication to its Indo-Pacific strategy. He also touched on the economic and diplomatic aspects of the strategy, highlighting the importance of trade, investment, and the promotion of democratic values and human rights in the region.
In a practical demonstration of this strategy, the USS Illinois, a Virginia-class submarine of the U.S. Navy, recently completed its deployment in the Indo-Pacific region. The mission of the submarine demonstrated the U.S.'s commitment to its allies and partners in the region and its dedication to maintaining maritime security in the Indo-Pacific.
The recent Exercise Southern Jackaroo, a trilateral military exercise involving the U.S. Marines, the Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force, and the Australian Defence Force, further demonstrated the U.S.'s commitment to the region. The exercise, held in Queensland, Australia, aimed to improve fire, maneuver, and communication interoperability among the participating forces, reinforcing the commitment of these nations to peace and security in the region.
In a diplomatic move that shows the U.S.'s intensified focus on the Indo-Pacific, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Tonga, New Zealand, and Australia. The visit, which comes amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with China, is expected to strengthen diplomatic ties and foster cooperation in areas such as climate change, cybersecurity, and regional security.
Blinken's visit to Tonga, the first by a U.S. Secretary of State in over three decades, highlights the strategic importance of Pacific Island nations in the U.S.'s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. In New Zealand, Blinken will engage in discussions around shared democratic values, climate change, and regional security issues with Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. In Australia, Blinken will participate in the annual Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN), a key event that highlights the strong alliance between the two nations.
Analyst Comment. These recent developments show the U.S.'s comprehensive approach to its Indo-Pacific strategy, combining military, economic, and diplomatic efforts to build stronger relationships with key partners in the region, thereby enhancing regional stability and countering the influence of potential adversaries.
BRICS Summit: Putin to Attend Virtually Amid Diplomatic Intricacies
The upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa will unfold without the physical presence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a development that concludes a period of intense speculation and diplomatic maneuvering. Putin, who is currently the subject of an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant, posed a diplomatic quandary for South Africa, an ICC member, which would have been compelled to enforce the warrant if Putin had set foot in the country.
The agreement for Putin's non-attendance was reached collaboratively, with Russia set to be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This decision was the outcome of a series of consultations spearheaded by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, the most recent of which transpired just before the announcement.
South Africa, the current chair of the BRICS group, is gearing up for the summit, which brings together Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Despite the controversy surrounding Putin's potential attendance, Ramaphosa maintains a positive outlook for the success of the summit.
Interestingly, Ramaphosa had requested Putin not to attend the summit but had to wait for the endorsement of the Chinese and Indian heads of state before making the announcement. The South African president had also lobbied Brazil's President Lula da Silva, who concurred with the preferred option of Putin not attending in person.
China Tensions: Becoming more Complex
The recent visit to Beijing by Henry Kissinger, the 100-year-old former US Secretary of State, has stirred speculation amidst escalating US-China tensions. Despite visiting as a private citizen, Kissinger's significant stature in China could potentially serve as a backchannel for negotiations. Chinese President Xi Jinping's warm reception of Kissinger at the historically significant Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, coupled with conciliatory messaging from other top Chinese officials, underscores a mutual desire for respect, cooperation, and "peaceful co-existence."
However, the diplomatic landscape is fraught with complexities. China's determination to block Taiwan's Vice President Lai Ching-te from transiting through the US has introduced additional tension. While China views this as a provocative move, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs argues that such transit arrangements are standard practice. The Ministry has called on China to respect the principles of peaceful dispute resolution as outlined in the United Nations Charter and to cease acts of force and economic coercion in the Taiwan Sea.
In an attempt to improve US-China relations, China's ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, proposed a three-pronged approach at the recent Aspen Security Forum. This includes shortening the "negative list" by managing differences and handling sensitive issues, lengthening the "positive list" by expanding cooperation, and involving individuals who support US-China relations. Despite the glimmers of hope offered by Kissinger's visit and Ambassador Xie's proposals, the ongoing tensions over Taiwan's international engagements highlight the challenges that lie ahead in the path to peace and cooperation.
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RESTRICTED
SIX MONTH ASSESSMENT
On U.S Pacific Strategy
Over the next six months, it is highly likely that the U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific
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