Grey Zone SITREP 22 Oct 22
While you were distracted in the Middle East, North Korea - Russia grow closer, China expands it's nuclear arsenal and is a war between the United States and Russia plausible?
Evening all,
Another week of the Grey Zone Situation Report. While the world has been watching events unfold in the Middle East - we’ve kept our eye on the likes of China, North Korea and Russia.
With the conflicts popping up across the globe, it seems the world is in a state of ‘shiny object syndrome’ where observers are jumping onto the next conflict as the next big thing. We mustn’t forget that the world is a big place and the accumulation of global tension is what matters most.
So keep an eye on what’s happening outside of what you are seeing on the mainstream media and start to understand the interconnectedness of things at the strategic level, as these will eventually have local impacts (that’s you..).
Over on the Strategic Daily, our premium need-to-know publication, we covered the following this week:
New Zealand’s New Government and What it Means for Defence and the Indo-Pacific (free article).
Why the Island Chains are Critical to the defence of Australia and New Zealand
The Impacts of the Russian-Ukraine War on Western Communities.
This is one of the few publications where it’ll take you about as close as you can get to the intelligence community and what is discussed across policy makers, without needing a clearance. If you’d like to trial the Strategic Daily, then please, take a month on us!
Yours,
ALCON.
Putin Says War with US is Nonsense, but is this really the case?
President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that suggestions the United States should prepare for a war against Russia and China were nonsense, but warned the West that any war against Russia would be on a whole different level to the conflict in Ukraine.
A bipartisan panel appointed by the U.S. Congress said on Thursday that Washington must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Moscow and Beijing by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization programme.
Putin, who is to visit China this week, said the United States had stoked tensions with Beijing by building the "AUKUS" security alliance of U.S., Australia and Britain and that Russia and China were not building a military alliance.
Is Putin right to say that war with the US is nonsense?
It is difficult to say definitively whether or not Putin is right to say that war with the US is nonsense. On the one hand, both the US and Russia are nuclear powers, and a war between the two countries would have devastating consequences for the entire world. On the other hand, there are a number of factors that could lead to a war between the two countries, including tensions over Ukraine, Syria, and other issues.
One of the biggest risks of war between the US and Russia is the possibility of miscalculation. If one country believes that the other is preparing for war, it may take pre-emptive action, even if that action is not necessary. This could lead to a spiral of escalation that could ultimately lead to war.
Another risk is the increasing militarization of the Arctic. The US and Russia are both increasing their military presence in the Arctic, and this could lead to tensions and accidents.
Despite the risks, it is important to remember that war between the US and Russia is not inevitable. Both countries have a strong interest in avoiding war, and there are a number of mechanisms in place to reduce the risk of conflict. For example, the US and Russia have regular communication channels to discuss their concerns, and they are both members of the United Nations Security Council.
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North Korea and Russia Grow Closer over Ukraine War
North Korea and Russia are growing closer as a result of the war in Ukraine. North Korea has been one of the few countries to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and it has reportedly provided Russia with weapons and ammunition.
North Korea's support for Russia is seen as a way to strengthen its own ties with Moscow and to show its defiance of the international community. North Korea is a highly isolated country, and it has been subject to numerous sanctions for its nuclear weapons program. Russia is also under sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine, and the two countries have found common ground in their opposition to the West.
In addition to providing military support, North Korea has also offered political support to Russia. North Korea has recognized the independence of two Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, and it has vetoed UN Security Council resolutions condemning Russia's invasion.
North Korea's support for Russia is concerning. It could lead to an increase in tensions in Northeast Asia and could make it more difficult to resolve the war in Ukraine. The international community should work to prevent North Korea from providing further support to Russia and to hold North Korea accountable for its actions.
Here are some specific ways that North Korea is supporting Russia in the Ukraine war:
Providing weapons and ammunition: North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with millions of artillery shells and other weapons. This support has helped Russia to replenish its stockpiles, which have been depleted by the fighting in Ukraine.
Recognizing the independence of Russian-backed separatist regions: North Korea is one of the few countries to have recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, two Russian-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine. This recognition is seen as a way to legitimize Russia's control over these regions.
Vetoing UN Security Council resolutions: North Korea has vetoed UN Security Council resolutions condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These vetoes have helped to prevent the UN from taking action to hold Russia accountable for its actions.
Future Scenarios Like to Lead to War with China
Understanding the potential future scenarios that could lead to a war is crucial for assessing the risks and taking preventive measures. This article highlights six possible future scenarios that could prompt China to take military action in Taiwan, along with the concerns and risks associated with a potential war between the two superpowers.
Formal Declaration of Independence: If Taiwan were to make a formal declaration of independence, it could cross one of China's red lines. China considers Taiwan its territory and has threatened military action in response to any move towards independence.
Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence: While Taiwan has avoided an outright declaration of independence, any actions that are perceived as moves towards independence could provoke China. The status quo maintained by Taiwan and supported by the United States may not be sufficient to prevent a military response.
Internal Unrest Within Taiwan: China has indicated that it would use force in the event of internal unrest within Taiwan. While Taiwan has enjoyed political stability and peace in recent decades, any significant internal conflicts could trigger military action from China.
Taiwan's Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons: Although Taiwan does not currently possess nuclear weapons, any evidence or attempts by Taiwan to acquire them could escalate tensions and potentially lead to a military confrontation [1].
Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification: If the dialogue on unification between China and Taiwan remains unresolved or indefinitely delayed, it could increase the likelihood of a military conflict. The differing positions and aspirations of both sides create a potential source of tension.
Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs: The presence of foreign troops on Taiwanese soil is seen as a potential catalyst for a Chinese invasion. Any foreign military intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs, especially with the support of the United States, could provoke a military response from China.
China's Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: A Cause for Concern
China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, according to the 2023 Report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, released by the Pentagon on October 19, 2023. The report states that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads and is on track to have more than 1,000 by 2030. This would represent a significant increase from China's estimated 410 warheads in 2022.
The Pentagon's report also states that China is developing new nuclear weapons and delivery systems, including hypersonic missiles and nuclear-armed submarines. This expansion of China's nuclear arsenal is a cause for concern for several reasons.
First, it could lead to an increase in nuclear tensions between China and the United States. The US has long been the world's leading nuclear power, and China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal could be seen as a challenge to US dominance. This could lead to an arms race between the two countries, which could increase the risk of nuclear war.
Second, China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal could undermine global nuclear nonproliferation efforts. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is a treaty that aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. However, China is not a party to the NPT, and its expansion of its nuclear arsenal could make it more difficult to convince other countries not to develop nuclear weapons.
Third, China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal could increase the risk of a nuclear accident. Nuclear accidents are rare, but they can have devastating consequences. China's expansion of its nuclear arsenal means that there are more nuclear weapons in the world, which increases the risk of an accident occurring.