Evening all,
Welcome back to another edition of the Grey Zone SITREP, where we bring you some of the weeks most important but underreported information on global tensions, conflict and future war.
This week see’s Ukraine conducting operations in the African continent, while China outlines it’s plan on reintegrating Taiwan to the mainland. However, a case is made by military experts that a PLAN blockade of Taiwan would be unsuccessful.
Lastly, a frontline emerges in the South China Sea Cold War with the Philippines being at the forefront of possible tension.
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Stay safe and stay ahead,
ALCON.
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Ukrainian Special Forces Harass Russia in Africa
Recent drone attacks on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan may have ties to Ukrainian special forces, according to an anonymous Ukrainian military source interviewed by CNN. These attacks, occurring in early September, targeted RSF positions and are believed to be connected to the Wagner Group's delivery of arms to RSF garrisons in southwest Sudan, amid an ongoing power struggle between RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023.
The attacks consisted of six strikes on Shambat Bridge and eight more on vehicles, buildings, and personnel near RSF locations in Omdurman and Ombada. CNN's analysis of drone footage even revealed Ukrainian text on the drone's controller. Notably, informants in Chad informed CNN that the Wagner convoy passed through Chad, where the group had no established presence, suggesting a potential expansion of Russian and Wagner influence in Africa.
Analyst Comment.
If Ukrainian involvement is confirmed, it would mark a significant development not only in African operations but also in the ongoing Eastern European conflict. However, it's worth mentioning that some critics remain skeptical of the Ukrainian source's claims, and a Sudanese military official informed CNN that they were unaware of any Ukrainian operations in Sudan.
China’s Plan for Taiwan Reintegration
China's government has introduced a "new approach to integrated development" with Taiwan, aiming to simplify the process for Taiwanese individuals to live, study, and work in China. Simultaneously, they have deployed the largest number of warships near Taiwan's eastern waters in years, a move that experts interpret as a choice between peaceful "reunification" and potential military action, particularly close to Taiwan's upcoming presidential election.
These measures, revealed by China's ruling Communist Party's Central Committee and the State Council, designate the coastal province of Fujian as a "demonstration zone" for integrated development. The 21 measures include provisions to enable Taiwanese people to reside in Fujian, access social services, expand Taiwanese student enrollment in Fujian schools, and strengthen industrial cooperation.
Official state media outlet China Daily explained that these initiatives aim to deepen cross-strait integrated development across various sectors and advance the peaceful reunification of the motherland. The Global Times, a state-backed news outlet with a hawkish stance, characterized these measures as outlining Taiwan's future development blueprint.
The proposal received extensive coverage in Taiwan's media, with a focus on measures encouraging Taiwanese investment in Fujian. However, responses in Taiwan have been skeptical, with concerns raised about China's property market and political environment. While some individuals expressed interest in fostering exchanges, others cited concerns about investing in a communist nation and working in an autocratic country with limited political freedoms.
Analyst Comment.
These developments occur against the backdrop of Taiwan's upcoming presidential election in January, where Beijing is expected to seek influence, particularly against the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocates Taiwan's sovereignty. Opposition parties and a majority of Taiwanese citizens also oppose Chinese rule. The situation is further complicated by mixed signals, with China promoting economic opportunities while flexing military muscle near Taiwan's shores.
A PLAN Blockade of Taiwan Would Fail
Senior Pentagon officials informed Congress on Tuesday that a Chinese attempt to blockade Taiwan would likely be ineffective, and a direct military invasion of the island would pose significant challenges for Beijing. In recent years, China has increased military activities around Taiwan, despite its claims to the territory. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his country's armed forces to prepare for a potential invasion by 2027, the decision to use military force remains uncertain.
McGee also emphasized the difficulties China's military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), would face in attempting a frontal, amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Such an invasion would require the massing of tens or even hundreds of thousands of troops on Taiwan's eastern coast, making it a clear and challenging endeavor that Taiwan and its population would likely resist strongly. In conclusion, McGee stated, "There is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA invasion of Taiwan."
Analyst Comment.
A blockade of Taiwan would provide an opportunity for Taiwan's allies to mobilize resources, making it unlikely to succeed. Additionally, the severe economic consequences of a blockade would likely galvanize international opposition to Beijing's actions. While a blockade is an option, it is unlikely due to the significant challenges involved.
Filipino Frontline in South China Sea Cold War
The Philippines is increasingly becoming a focal point for major powers, leading to a rare exchange of words between the Japanese and Chinese embassies in Manila over developments in the South China Sea. Japanese Ambassador Koshikawa Kazuhiko expressed concern about environmental damage caused by Chinese forces in disputed waters, particularly regarding coral reefs and marine environments. China countered by accusing Tokyo of "disinformation" and referencing Japan's release of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean.
Amidst these verbal exchanges, the Philippines and its allies are considering more assertive actions in the South China Sea. The Philippines is contemplating legal action against China at international bodies, building on a previous arbitration victory. Meanwhile, some American experts propose more radical measures, including deploying U.S. troops to Philippine-occupied Thitu Island and establishing combined Philippine-U.S. forward operating bases on contested features such as the Second Thomas Shoal.
Analyst Comment.
Tensions in the South China Sea have escalated since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s state visit to Beijing, with both sides taking increasingly uncompromising stances. While Beijing has tightened its grip on Philippine vessels and land features in disputed areas, Manila has strengthened its defense cooperation with Western allies and raised awareness of alleged violations of international law by Chinese forces in Philippine waters.