Grey Zone SITREP 25 August 2023
The ultimate free resource to keep you ahead of what's important in the world.
Hey everyone,
Another week, another round of significant develops across the Indo Pacific and beyond. Personally, I’ve got my eye on BRICS. While this is touted as an economic bloc, there are indications that it could be leveraged to enable other types of deals / alliances.
I would recommend you keep an eye on it also.
Have a good weekend.
Cole.
US Approves Potential $500 Million Military Equipment Sale to Taiwan Amid Escalating Tensions with China
The proposed sale includes a range of advanced weaponry such as infrared search-and-track systems, munitions support, and equipment destined for the F-16 fighter jet program. Seeking to allay concerns, the US Department of State, in a statement released on Wednesday, asserted that this sale would not disrupt the prevailing military equilibrium in the region.
The prospective deal is poised to be negotiated with defense and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin, though the final agreement has not been formalized as of yet. Hours prior to the announcement, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan embarked on a symbolic visit to Kinmen Island, a location steeped in historical significance due to its connection to the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1958.
On the occasion of the 65th anniversary of this crisis, President Tsai reiterated her administration's commitment to bolstering Taiwan's defenses. She highlighted the imperative of enhancing self-reliance, fortifying defense capabilities, and augmenting resilience as crucial steps toward preserving peace, particularly in the face of China's escalated military activities aimed at asserting sovereignty over Taiwan.
China and Russia's Perspectives on Escalating Geopolitical Tensions
Recent events in the South China Sea have sparked diplomatic reactions from both China and the United States, with each side presenting their interpretations of the situation. China's Coast Guard lawfully took action to repel Philippine vessels from waters near Ren'ai Jiao in Nansha Qundao, an act the US Department of State criticized as an intrusion into legitimate maritime rights protection and enforcement. China perceives this as yet another instance of US intervention in regional affairs and sensationalizing the South China Sea matter.
Chinese experts view the US's stance as part of its broader Indo-Pacific Strategy, unveiled in a new version of a strategy document in February 2022. Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Academy of Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, asserts that the US is leveraging the South China Sea as a means to further its Indo-Pacific Strategy, which aims to expand its presence in the region, bolster alliances, and counter China's influence. This strategy, according to Diao, underscores the US's obsession with maintaining global hegemony and portrays China as a threat, driving its efforts to rally allies against China's interests.
Furthermore, Russia's perspective on the evolving dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region aligns with concerns about US actions. Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, highlighted the US's continuous expansion of military infrastructure in the region, citing the creation of alliances such as AUKUS and discussions around supplying weapons to Taiwan. Patrushev criticized the US for fueling tension and instability by pushing military infrastructure closer to the borders of Russia and China.
China's Medical Diplomacy: Text Book Grey Zone Operation
Against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry in the Pacific, China's navy hospital ship, Peace Ark, has made a strategic stop in the Solomon Islands, further intensifying the soft power struggle for regional influence. This maritime medical mission is emblematic of China's broader strategy to bolster its presence in the Pacific through humanitarian endeavors. The Peace Ark's week-long stay in the Solomon Islands capital, Honiara, comes as a part of its mission to offer essential medical care to Pacific island nations grappling with inadequate healthcare systems. This approach aligns with China's overarching goal of expanding its influence in the region by cultivating goodwill and gaining strategic leverage.
The Solomon Islands, in particular, stands as a prime example of China's effective influence-building efforts. The nation's shift in diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019, coupled with a subsequent security pact signed with China, has raised alarms in Western capitals. The presence of the Peace Ark serves as a tangible demonstration of China's commitment to the region's well-being, resonating with local populations who often struggle with limited medical access. The warm reception by Solomon Islanders highlights the appeal of China's healthcare diplomacy, as citizens eagerly queue for medical services that are often inaccessible or under-resourced in their own country.
Expanding BRICS: Iran and Syria Poised to Join
In a significant move, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been invited to join the BRICS bloc, a coalition of developing economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The inclusion of these two Middle Eastern powerhouses underscores a growing alignment between China and Russia while escalating tensions with Western powers. Joining them are the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia, forming an 11-nation bloc set to take effect on January 1, 2024. This expansion, spearheaded largely by China and Russia, materialized after an intensive summit in Johannesburg, attended by prominent leaders including Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. Notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin joined the discussions virtually due to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant linked to the war in Ukraine.
The BRICS expansion, championed by China and Russia, presents itself as a consortium seeking to amplify the influence of the Global South in international affairs. The involvement of major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran amplifies the economic clout of the organization, with the potential for their contributions to the BRICS’ New Development Bank. This expansion, however, doesn't come without challenges. Argentina and Egypt, being the largest debtors to the International Monetary Fund, may raise concerns about the bloc's financial stability. Additionally, Ethiopia's inclusion amidst its regional conflicts underscores the complexities BRICS could face in navigating global crises. While there are apprehensions that BRICS' growth could manifest as an anti-Western alliance, leaders emphasized the importance of cooperation and unity, echoing the need for reform in global financial institutions to ensure fair treatment for developing nations.
ENDS.