Grey Zone SITREP 28 July 2023
Our weekly free situation report on the week's most underreported events taking place between peace and war.
Evening all,
Another week, another situation report. This week is a very heavy Indo Pacific focus, as there has been some significant moves that have gone under-reported (especially as the world focuses on Ukraine).
From President Xi Jinping's call for strengthened military governance to proposed joint military exercises with the Philippines, China's strategic moves are reshaping the dynamics of the region. Meanwhile, Australia and New Zealand voice their concerns over China's expanding power, highlighting the growing challenges to regional stability.
As always, this report is completely free. However, if you do appreciate the work I put into this information - then please consider supporting my work through a paid subscription. All proceeds go towards OSINT tools I can use to better obtain information for deeper insights. I’m currently offering free 30 day trials:
Strengthening Military Governance in China
President Xi Jinping recently reiterated the necessity of bolstering military governance during a key session. He characterised this as a significant transformation in the party's methodology for managing the armed forces. Furthermore, he identified it as a strategic necessity for expediting the modernisation of national defence and the military, as well as a vital component in the advancement of the national governance system and capabilities.
President Xi emphasised the importance of fully embracing the ethos of the 20th Party Congress and the concept of strengthening the army in the new era. He insisted on the absolute leadership of the Party over the military, with combat capability as the fundamental criterion. The continuous improvement of the socialist military system, with its unique Chinese characteristics, was also highlighted.
Analyst Comment. Since the 18th Party Congress, the Central Committee and the Central Military Commission have consistently supported the Party's total control over the military. They have promoted military governance, focusing on reforming national defence and the military, supporting law-based governance, and improving military strategy. This has led to new institutional structures, laws, regulations, and policies. It has also helped maintain and evolve the socialist military system with Chinese characteristics, contributing to the modernisation of national defence and the military.
South China Sea Update
In the latest developments surrounding the South China Sea conflict, China has proposed joint military exercises with the Philippines, a move that has sparked controversy. The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines has submitted a white paper detailing this proposal, which is currently under review by the Philippines. The location for these potential joint exercises, however, remains undisclosed. This proposal comes as part of China's ongoing efforts to strengthen its influence in the region.
Philippine Army Commander Romeo Brawner confirmed the proposal, stating that the current military cooperation between the two nations is limited to training programs for Philippine officers in China. He emphasised that the Philippines is open to cooperation with any country in building its defensive capabilities. Meanwhile, Chinese Ambassador Huang Xilian reiterated Beijing's commitment to resolving disputes through peaceful means, expressing optimism for progress in mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, which could bring peace and stability to the South China Sea.
Australia and New Zealand Express Concern Over China's Growing Regional Power
In a significant development, Australia and New Zealand have jointly voiced concerns over China's increasing regional influence, particularly in light of a new policing deal with the Solomon Islands and escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Chris Hipkins convened in Wellington on Wednesday, issuing their most potent joint statement to date on Beijing's expanding power. The meeting followed Hipkins' visit to Beijing last month aimed at bolstering relations with the superpower.
The two leaders expressed serious concerns about the growing challenges to regional stability in an increasingly contested and difficult world. They highlighted the developments in the South China Sea and the intensification of destabilising activities as areas of concern. The statement also highlights the rising tensions across the Taiwan Strait. This public criticism of Beijing comes despite New Zealand's reluctance to do so previously, given its growing exports to China during the COVID-19 pandemic and amidst sanctions on Australian products such as wine and wool.
China's Security Deals and Pacific Relations
The statement by Hipkins and Albanese also pointed out that the new policing agreement between China and the Solomon Islands could undermine the Pacific's agreed regional security norms, stating that the agreement is inconsistent with the commitments of the Pacific Islands Forum leaders and their approach to regional security matters. This comes in the wake of the Solomon Islands' security deal last year and the recent policing deal aimed at enhancing its law enforcement capacity.
Analyst Comment. It’s almost certain that this deal will come with strings attached, as Beijing continues to ramp up its economic investments in the region. This includes the construction of the stadium for the Pacific Island Games in November. In contrast, Australian aid and support comes with no strings attached.
ASSESSMENT
So what does this all mean?
China's President Xi Jinping's recent emphasis on strengthening military governance and the proposal for joint military exercises with the Philippines indicate a strategic shift towards enhancing China's military capabilities and influence in the region. This move aligns with the broader goal of modernising national defence and the military, as well as advancing the national governance system. The proposal for joint military exercises, if accepted, could potentially expand China's military cooperation beyond training programs and establish a stronger foothold in the South China Sea region.
In the future, we can expect China to continue to push for similar military collaborations and increase its presence in the region. This will likely be met with growing concern from other regional powers, as evidenced by the joint statement from Australia and New Zealand. The increasing regional influence of China, particularly its new policing deal with the Solomon Islands, has already raised alarms about the potential destabilisation of the region.
The policing agreement with the Solomon Islands, coupled with China's economic investments in the region, suggests a strategic move to consolidate its power and influence in the Pacific. The policing agreement is likely to cement Beijing’s security foothold in the country, and it’s likely we will see a Chinese police presence in events leading up to the Pacific Games. We must remember that these deals are likely to come with strings attached, potentially leading to a greater dependence of these countries on China. This could further tip the balance of power in the region in China's favour.