Grey Zone SITREP 29 Sept 23
China through to Nagorno-Karabakh. Here's your weeks free analysis on the most important but underreported events.
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U.S. Strengthens Against China While North Korea Secures Strategic Win
China’s Property Crises Deepens and What it Means for you
The Old World Order has Ended. What’s Next?
The Time Has Come for China’s Property Market
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China Studies Outcome of Ukraine War
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will shape China's behavior toward its neighbors, according to US Senators Roger Wicker (Republican-Mississippi) and Jeanne Shaheen (Democrat-New Hampshire).
If Ukraine wins the war, it will be a deterrent to China from taking similar actions in the Indo-Pacific region, Wicker said. Shaheen added that the war is about more than just Ukraine's territorial integrity, but also about standing up to authoritarian regimes that attack and annex other countries.
Both senators expressed concern about the Biden administration's incremental approach to providing aid to Ukraine, and called for continued support, even as some House Republicans oppose it. Wicker said it is important to make the case that US support for Ukraine is a US national security interest.
Shaheen said she was inspired by the words of a young Ukrainian woman who told her: "You need to give us the weapons so that we can fight the Russians so that you don’t have to." She also discussed the impact of Russia's efforts to shut down grain shipping lanes in the Black Sea on global food prices, and her collaboration with Senator Mitt Romney (Republican-Utah) to request the Biden administration to develop a comprehensive strategy for the Black Sea.
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US Senator Mitch McConnell Reiterates Importance of Supporting Ukraine
In a speech to the CEPA Forum on September 27, US Senator Mitch McConnell (Republican-KY) reiterated the importance of continuing support for Ukraine, emphasizing its alignment with US interests and the minimal cost involved.
McConnell said that supporting Ukraine is an "easy call" for the United States. He argued that the United States is now facing a coalition of adversaries that includes China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. He said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin is allowed to win in Ukraine, it will send a message to other NATO countries that they could be next.
McConnell also made the case that continuing to support Ukraine is in the United States' best economic interests. He said that the war has not cost the lives of any US military personnel, and that weapons transfers to Ukraine are allowing the United States to modernize its industrial base with cutting-edge technology that will be needed in the rising competition from Russia and China.
McConnell acknowledged that some members of his own party are opposed to continuing US support for Ukraine. He attributed this to the influence of former US President Donald Trump. However, he said that the leadership of both houses of Congress is still very much in favor of supporting Ukraine.
McConnell also criticized the Biden administration's approach to military aid for Ukraine as being "not aggressive enough." He called for more timely support, and said that the administration has done a poor job of delivering weapons support on time and making the argument to the American people.
The Geopolitics of Foreign Support for the Nagorno-Karabakh War
The Nagorno-Karabakh War is a complex conflict with a long history, and the geopolitical interests of foreign powers play a significant role in the dynamics of the conflict.
One of the key players in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is Iran. Iran is a Shia-majority Muslim country, while Azerbaijan is a secular Muslim country. Armenia is a Christian-majority country. Iran and Armenia have a long history of cooperation, and Iran provides military and financial support to Armenia.
Iran's support for Armenia is largely motivated by its desire to counter Turkish influence in the region. Turkey is a Sunni-majority Muslim country and a member of NATO. Turkey has close ties with Azerbaijan, and it provides military and financial support to Azerbaijan.
Iran is also concerned about the potential for Azerbaijan to become a base for Israeli intelligence operations. Israel is a close ally of the United States, and Iran views Israel as a major threat.
Another key player in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is Russia. Russia has close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia sells arms to both countries, and it has peacekeeping forces stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia's support for Armenia is largely motivated by its desire to maintain its influence in the region. Russia views the Caucasus as a strategically important region, and it does not want to see any other major power gain too much influence there.
Russia also has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. A major war in the region could destabilize the region and lead to a refugee crisis. This could have negative consequences for Russia, which has a long border with Azerbaijan.
The United States has also played a role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The United States has provided financial and military support to Azerbaijan. The United States is also involved in the OSCE Minsk Group, which is a group of international mediators that is trying to broker a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The United States' interest in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is largely motivated by its desire to counter Russian influence in the region. The United States also wants to promote peace and stability in the region, as this is important for its allies and partners.
Why China Takes an Aggressive Stance Towards its Maritime Neighbours
China's aggressive behavior towards its maritime neighbors is rooted in a number of factors, including its history, its political system, and its economic ambitions.
Historically, China has been a dominant power in East Asia. However, in the 19th and early 20th centuries, China was weakened by internal turmoil and foreign imperialism. This period of humiliation has left a lasting legacy of insecurity and nationalism in the Chinese psyche.
China's political system is also a factor in its aggressive behavior. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is a highly authoritarian regime that is obsessed with maintaining control. The CCP sees any challenge to its authority, both domestic and foreign, as a threat.
Finally, China's economic ambitions are also a factor in its aggressive behavior. China is the world's second-largest economy and is rapidly growing. This economic growth has led to increased demand for resources, including energy and minerals. China's maritime neighbors control many of the resources that China needs, and China is willing to use its military and economic power to secure access to these resources.
China's century of humiliation
In the 19th and early 20th centuries, China was weakened by internal turmoil and foreign imperialism. This period of humiliation has left a lasting legacy of insecurity and nationalism in the Chinese psyche.
The Opium Wars (1839-1842 and 1856-1860) were a series of wars between China and Britain over the Chinese ban on opium imports. Britain defeated China in both wars, and China was forced to cede Hong Kong to Britain and open its ports to foreign trade.
The First Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895) was a war between China and Japan over Korea. Japan defeated China in the war, and China was forced to cede Taiwan and Korea to Japan.
The Boxer Rebellion (1900) was an uprising by Chinese nationalists against foreign imperialism. The uprising was crushed by a coalition of foreign powers, and China was forced to pay a heavy indemnity.
The Republic of China was founded in 1912, but China remained a divided and unstable country until the Chinese Communist Party came to power in 1949.
The CCP has used the century of humiliation to justify its authoritarian rule and its aggressive foreign policy. The CCP tells the Chinese people that it is the only force that can protect China from foreign aggression and restore China to its former greatness.
China's political system
China's political system is also a factor in its aggressive behavior. The CCP is a highly authoritarian regime that is obsessed with maintaining control. The CCP sees any challenge to its authority, both domestic and foreign, as a threat.
The CCP's authoritarianism is rooted in its ideology and its history. The CCP is a Marxist-Leninist party that believes in the dictatorship of the proletariat. The CCP also has a long history of using violence to suppress dissent.
This has led to a number of human rights abuses, including arbitrary detention, torture, and forced labor. The CCP has also cracked down on freedom of speech and religion in China.
The CCP sees any challenge to its authority, both domestic and foreign, as a threat. This is why the CCP is so hostile to democracy and human rights.
China's economic ambitions
China's economic ambitions are also a factor in its aggressive behavior. China is the world's second-largest economy and is rapidly growing. This economic growth has led to increased demand for resources, including energy and minerals. China's maritime neighbors control many of the resources that China needs, and China is willing to use its military and economic power to secure access to these resources.
China claims vast areas of the South China Sea, even though these areas are also claimed by other countries. China's territorial claims are based on historical claims that are widely considered to be illegitimate.
China is rapidly increasing its military spending and developing new weapons systems. This military buildup is a threat to China's maritime neighbors, who are much smaller and weaker than China.