Grey Zone SITREP: Sino - Russian, Russian - DPRK, Relations Continue to Deepen (are you paying attention yet?)
Your always free and weekly digest covering the most important and underreported events to keep you ahead.
Hello dear friends,
Welcome back to the Grey Zone, your free and weekly digest dedicated to uncovering the most important yet underreported events across the Indo-Pacific aka The Grey Zone Battlefield. This week has been particularly captivating, marked by an interview that has caught the attention of many, including myself—the conversation between Tucker Carlson and President Putin. The discourse offered interesting insights and many laughs (and eye rolls), sparking a wave of interest and commentary among our readers. For those keen on diving deeper into the perspectives shared by our community, the "Outstations" section of this edition is where you'll find this commentary.
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Thank you for your continued support and engagement.
Warm regards,
ALCON.
DIPLOMATIC
Highlights of the Russia-China Strategic Partnership and Dialogue
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping reaffirmed the strength and depth of the Russia-China comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction.
President Putin extended warm Spring Festival greetings to President Xi and the Chinese people, symbolizing the cultural respect and friendship that underpin the diplomatic ties between the two nations. The leaders celebrated the significant milestone achieved in their bilateral trade, with turnover surpassing the ambitious $200 billion target ahead of schedule, reaching a record $227.7 billion. This achievement reflects the robust economic collaboration that has flourished under their strategic partnership.
2023 marks the 75th anniversary of Russia-China diplomatic relations, and both leaders expressed a keen interest in deepening cooperation across various sectors. Energy, finance, infrastructure, transport, industry, agriculture, and cultural exchanges were highlighted as key areas for future collaboration, demonstrating a comprehensive approach to strengthening their ties further.
The conversation also touched upon the importance of synchronized foreign policy efforts within major multilateral platforms such as the UN, BRICS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Xi Jinping's support for Russia's BRICS presidency underscores the strategic alignment and shared objectives of the two powers. Additionally, the leaders engaged in a substantive discussion on global and regional issues, including the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. Their unified stance on the Palestinian issue and the reaffirmation of the "one China" policy concerning Taiwan reflect a common vision for a political and diplomatic resolution to these complex challenges.
The situation in Ukraine was also discussed, highlighting the geopolitical sensitivities and the broader implications for international relations and peace. Both Putin and Xi emphasized the role of Russian-Chinese cooperation as a stabilizing factor in global affairs.
Russian Ambassador to DPRK Speech
On February 9th, the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang hosted a significant event at the Taedong Diplomatic Club to celebrate Diplomat's Day, a day recognizing the efforts and contributions of diplomats to international relations and diplomacy. This gathering was not just a ceremonial observance but also an opportunity to foster diplomatic ties and mutual understanding among various stakeholders in the region.
The event saw the participation of employees and their families from the Russian diplomatic mission, under the leadership of Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), A.I. Matsegora. The occasion was marked by the presence of esteemed colleagues from Korean ministries and departments, as well as representatives from the diplomatic corps.
During the reception, Ambassador A.I. Matsegora delivered a speech, highlighting the significance of diplomacy in maintaining and enhancing the bonds between Russia and the DPRK:
“Dear Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK Comrade Im Chong Il,
Dear ambassadors extraordinary and plenipotentiary of different countries, military attaches, diplomats and your spouses,
Dear Korean and Russian colleagues,
Friends,
It gives me great pleasure to welcome all of you in this hall filled with feelings of friendship at a reception organized by the Russian Embassy on the occasion of Diplomat's Day, widely celebrated in my country.
We, Russian diplomats, are grateful to the country's leadership for establishing our professional holiday 22 years ago. We regard this decision as recognition of the great contribution that the Russian foreign policy service makes to the protection of the political, economic, and humanitarian interests of the Russian state and its citizens on the territory of foreign countries, to ensuring the security of our Motherland, protecting its dignity and sovereignty.
Russian diplomacy is celebrating its professional holiday under the most difficult conditions in recent decades. The United States and its satellites did not stop at attempts to isolate our country, to surround it with a palisade of all kinds of economic and financial sanctions. Washington decided to unleash a real war against us, mobilizing not only all its NATO allies, but also bringing countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea to military pressure on Russia, which fuel the bloodshed with monetary subsidies and directly or indirectly arm our enemy. Unfortunately, the striking fist of this coalition was Ukraine with its armed forces, duped by nationalist and openly fascist propaganda. As a result, a tragic situation has arisen when, to the delight of the collective West, people who are close by blood, have a common history, and speak the same language - Russian - look at each other through the sights of guns and machine guns.
Our enemies do not hide their ultimate goal, which is to bleed Russia and ultimately remove it from the international arena as their main competitor, the main obstacle to creating a unipolar world order tailored to Western patterns.
We won't let them do this. We are not only soldiers and officers on the front line, not only workers of military factories, not only volunteers helping our soldiers and their families, millions and millions of workers honestly fulfilling their patriotic duty and working for Victory. These are us too – fighters on the foreign policy front.
We, diplomats of the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang, are very lucky - we work in a country of friends, in a country that unconditionally, from the very beginning of the Special Military Operation, supported Russia and its Armed Forces. I would like to express to you, dear Korean comrades, comrades, brothers in arms, my heartfelt, heartfelt gratitude.
Together we will definitely win, and this will be our common great victory over a common enemy.
In conclusion, let me propose a toast:
For the health of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin and the Chairman of State Affairs of the DPRK Comrade Kim Jong-un,
For the health and success in work of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the DPRK, Comrade Im Chong Il,
For the health of ambassadors extraordinary and plenipotentiary, military attaches and your spouses,
For the health of all Korean friends and Russian compatriots present in this hall,
For our Victory!”
INFORMATIONAL
The Debate Over TikTok's Rapid Growth and Security Concerns
TikTok's explosive growth in the United States continues to spark debate amid concerns over privacy and the potential for Chinese government surveillance. Despite allegations that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could use TikTok for spying and influencing American citizens, the app's popularity soars, driven by ByteDance's extensive lobbying and advertising efforts. A Wall Street Journal report highlighted that TikTok invested $1.5 billion to assure U.S. lawmakers of its safety, while its lobbying expenditures surged to over $7.4 million in 2023, marking a significant increase from previous years.
This investment in shaping public and political opinion comes as TikTok's user base expands, particularly among younger Americans. Pew Research Center notes a 12 percent increase in TikTok usage among U.S. adults since 2021, with the platform dominating the social media landscape among the youth. However, this growth is shadowed by serious data privacy concerns, given ByteDance's obligation under Chinese law to share collected data with the CCP, raising alarms over potential misuse.
Moreover, the platform faces criticism for circulating harmful content, with studies linking TikTok to the promotion of dangerous challenges and negative impacts on mental health among minors. The contrast between the international version of TikTok and its Chinese counterpart, Douyin, which promotes educational content and limits usage for children, further fuels the debate over the app's content standards.
The response has been bipartisan, with TikTok banned on federal devices and several states taking similar actions. The situation underscores a broader challenge: balancing innovation and the benefits of global digital platforms with the imperative of safeguarding national security and user well-being. As TikTok's influence grows, the pressure mounts on lawmakers to address these complex issues effectively.
MILITARY
In 2024, the activities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China and the Russian Armed Forces in the vicinity of Japan and Taiwan have seen a notable increase, signaling heightened tensions and strategic maneuvering in the Indo-Pacific region.
The PLA has been particularly active in conducting naval and air exercises near Taiwan, emphasizing its claim over the island and demonstrating its capability to enforce those claims if necessary. These exercises have included the deployment of aircraft carriers, missile tests, and cyber warfare drills.
Similarly, the Russian Armed Forces have increased their presence near Japan, with increased naval patrols in the North Pacific and joint military exercises with China in the Sea of Japan. These activities are perceived as a show of strength and a message to the West about the deepening military cooperation between Russia and China. Moreover, Russia's military maneuvers near the Kuril Islands, which are disputed with Japan, continue to add to the tensions in the region.
These developments have prompted concerns in Tokyo and Taipei, leading to calls for enhanced defense capabilities and closer security cooperation with allies. Japan, in particular, has been vocal about its intentions to bolster its defense posture, including plans to acquire counterstrike capabilities and to enhance its missile defense systems in response to the perceived threats.
Philippines and United States Joint Exercises
The Philippines and the United States conducted joint maritime exercises in the contentious waters of the South China Sea, marking a continuation of their expanding defense cooperation amid heightened regional tensions. This latest round of drills underscores the growing security engagements between these treaty allies, especially at a time when territorial disputes in the South China Sea have led to increased frictions between the Philippines and China
This series of joint exercises, the third of its kind since November of the previous year, comes as the Philippines seeks to bolster its defense ties with the United States, its former colonial ruler. These maneuvers have not gone unnoticed by Beijing, which views such military collaborations as a challenge to its claims over the South China Sea and perceives the United States' involvement as interference in what it considers its sovereign territory.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines, led by Chief Romeo Brawner, have emphasized that these drills are a testament to the commitment of both nations to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region. They aim to enhance maritime capabilities and foster close cooperation between the Philippines and the United States, amidst the backdrop of contested maritime claims.
Analyst Comment:
China's claim over almost the entire South China Sea, a critical maritime route for over $3 trillion worth of commercial shipping annually, has been a point of contention. The Philippines, along with Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, have disputed China's expansive claims, which overlap with their exclusive economic zones. The Philippines, in particular, has raised concerns over China's coastguard fleet, accusing it of hostile intentions and actions contrary to international law, a claim that China rebuffs by asserting its right to protect its territory.
Trilateral Maritime Operations Strengthen Indo-Pacific Alliances
The USS John Finn, an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, and the USS Gabrielle Giffords, an Independence-variant littoral combat ship, engaged in trilateral operations with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) in the South China Sea on February 7th and 8th.
Commander Earvin Taylor, the commanding officer of the USS John Finn, emphasized the importance of these operations in bolstering the tri-nation relationship. He highlighted the commitment to promoting transparency, the rule of law, freedom of navigation, and principles that support security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
The U.S. Navy's engagement in these exercises is part of a broader strategy to enhance interoperability and deterrence alongside allies and partners. The operations have evolved in complexity and scale, reflecting a concerted effort to build a cohesive force capable of addressing various challenges in the Indo-Pacific waters.
Commodore Jonathan Ley, RAN, Australia’s Joint Force Maritime Component Commander, reiterated the significance of such cooperative activities. He pointed out that Australia has long been proactive in engaging with regional nations through a robust program of international cooperation.
ECONOMIC
India's Ambitious $67 Billion Investment in Oil and Gas
India is set to significantly boost its oil and gas sector with an ambitious investment of approximately $67 billion by 2030. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced this major initiative with the goal of increasing the share of natural gas in India's energy mix from the current 6% to 15%. This strategic investment is expected to unfold over the next 5 to 6 years, underlining India's commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio amidst growing domestic energy demands.
As the world's third-largest consumer of energy, including oil and LPG, and the fourth-largest importer and processor of LNG, India's energy sector is on a rapid growth trajectory. The country's hydrocarbon demand is projected to double from the current 19 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to 38 million boe by 2025. Modi's announcement not only reflects India's energy ambitions but also its role in the global energy market, with potential implications for energy security.
Saudi Arabia's Strategic Oil Pricing Adjustments
Saudi Arabia, a dominant player in the global oil market, announced slight adjustments to its oil grade prices for Asia and the US for March 2024. The Kingdom's main grade for Asia, Arab Light, will maintain its price, signaling stability in Saudi Arabia's oil pricing strategy. Minor reductions in the prices of Arab Extra Light and Arab Medium for Asian markets, and Arab Extra Light and Arab Light for the US market, indicate Saudi Aramco's nuanced approach to balancing market demands and strategic interests.
By keeping the Arab Light price for Asian buyers consistent with previous months, Saudi Arabia ensures competitive positioning in the critical Asian market. These pricing decisions are pivotal in maintaining Saudi Arabia's influence in global oil markets.
Iran and Venezuela Deepen Oil and Gas Cooperation
The oil sectors of Iran and Venezuela, both rich in hydrocarbon resources yet facing international sanctions, are furthering their cooperation. An Iranian delegation's visit to Caracas has set the stage for discussions on mutual support in the oil and gas industry. Venezuela seeks Iran's expertise in refinery construction and maintenance, as well as petrochemical industry advancement.
This collaboration is part of Iran's broader strategy of energy diplomacy, especially in Latin America. For Venezuela, Iranian support could be instrumental in overcoming infrastructure challenges and boosting its oil and gas production capabilities.
Outstations
Comments from the Community on the Tucker Carlson - Putin Interview
“After watching the entire segment, it hit me that Putin didn't really drop any bombshells for those already versed in Russia's stance. However, for a lot of folks out there in the dark on these issues, this could be quite the eye-opener.
The standout moment, though, was Putin's bold claim about the Nord Stream pipeline situation being a U.S. orchestrated affair.
Tucker Carlson didn't hold back either. He played it straight down the middle but didn't shy away from pressing Putin hard, especially on the topic of the detained American journalist. That segment alone, lasting over ten minutes, was far from any soft-pedaling interview.
“Labeling the interview as a platform for propaganda, the conversation with a leader who has been implicated in initiating the most significant conflict in Europe since World War II, with a kleptocratic oligarchy that plunges his nation into hardship, relentlessly persecuting political opposition, infringing on human rights, and facing legal convictions, certainly raises eyebrows. It's puzzling to see such content being given airtime and even more so, being considered with any degree of seriousness.”
“Honestly, thinking Putin would just sit there and get grilled without turning it to his advantage? Come on, that was never gonna happen. The whole thing felt like they were tossing him gimmees.
And this whole spiel about Russia's massive history of grabbing land left and right, but oh, it's somehow the West's fault that countries formerly under the Soviet thumb are running into NATO's arms for safety? That's a bit of a stretch, isn't it?
I'm also sitting here scratching my head, trying to figure out the endgame of dumping truckloads of cash into this conflict. We're talking hundreds of billions, maybe even trillions. What's the real play here for Russia?”