Grey Zone Situation Report 05 Nov 23
The Australian Prime Minister is in China to meet Xi Jinping, while the PLAAF has intercepted a Canadian military aircraft. Catch up on the most important grey zone events from the week.
Evening all,
It’s Guy Fawkes here, the noises pale in comparison to what is taking place around the world.
Ukraine.
Gaza.
The Sahel.
Nagorno Karabakh.
The world is not getting any less explosive.
While the world’s attention remains on the flashpoints that have ignited, I remain committed to ensuring the Indo-Pacific gets the attention it deserves. A recent poll conducted by Aucoin Analytics LLC, found that most people in his audience believed that the China - Taiwan problem would be the catalyst for a global war.
In addition to our weekly situation report, we've launched a daily podcast brief to keep you updated on the latest developments. This brief offers a concise overview of the past 24 hours' critical events. While it focuses on the Indo-Pacific region, it also touches upon major global happenings. Each episode, ranging from 3 to 5 minutes, is designed for those seeking a quick yet thorough update. Tune in through YouTube or your preferred podcast platform to stay informed on the go.
Lastly, our Strategic Daily report is our premium offering that is a written deep dive into current conflict. This is comprehensive and deep OSINT research, that truly puts you ahead of the news cycle. Last week, we were ahead of MSM on several reports by 10 to 12 hours. This is a paid service, and we have recently been named a Substack bestseller due to the increasing demand. For only a short while longer we will be offering a free, 30-day, no obligation trial. If you want to truly be ahead of the masses - you need to be a reader of the Strategic Daily.
Monday tomorrow here in New Zealand.
Have a good week and stay ahead.
ALCON.
DIPLOMATIC
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has embarked on a 4-day tour in China, with his first stop being Shanghai. This historic visit aims to stabilize the relationship between Australia and China, which has been strained in recent years. Upon his arrival at Shanghai airport, Prime Minister Albanese was warmly welcomed by the vice mayor of Shanghai and the Chinese ambassador to Australia.
Australian officials have emphasized that this visit is not about a return to the environment of the last prime ministerial visit by Malcolm Turnbull in 2016. Instead, the focus is on stabilizing the relationship between the two countries. Prime Minister Albanese attended a Grand Banquet hosted by Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday night, which marked the beginning of his trip. This banquet preceded the Chinese International Import Expo in Shanghai, which the Prime Minister will be visiting on Sunday.
The Expo is an important event that showcases Chinese imports and is attended by numerous Australian businesses and business leaders. Following his visit to the Expo, the Prime Minister will travel to Beijing on Sunday night. On Monday evening (Australian time), he will hold his second bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Prime Minister Albanese and President Xi first met at the G20 Summit in Bali last year.
The timing of this trip is important. It comes just a week after the United States hosted a state dinner for the Australian Prime Minister in Washington. The discussions between Prime Minister Albanese and his Chinese counterpart will cover various topics, including trade sanctions, human rights, and consular issues such as the continued detention of Yang Hengjun.
Before departing from Darwin on Saturday, Prime Minister Albanese expressed his stance on the visit. He highlighted the importance of cooperation with China where possible, while also acknowledging the need to address areas of disagreement in their national interest.
ANALYST COMMENT. China is Australia's largest buyer of exports, purchasing $150 billion worth of resources annually. However, the diplomatic freeze between the two countries has created a strained relationship in recent years.
This visit holds significance as Prime Minister Albanese hopes it will mark the end of the deep freeze between Australia and China. It is worth noting that this visit coincides with the 50th anniversary of Gough Whitlam's visit to China, which marked a re-engagement between the two countries. Despite the warm welcome from the Chinese, there is a sense that the relationship may still take some time to fully thaw.
INFORMATION
In the last few years, multiple conflicts have arisen in different parts of the world. In 2022, we witnessed the Russia-Ukraine conflict, followed by the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Currently, there is an ongoing war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These conflicts have not only involved traditional forms of warfare, such as land-based offensives, air strikes, and naval conflicts, but they have also amplified an often overlooked area of conflict: information warfare.
Information warfare has become increasingly prevalent in recent times. The Israel-Gaza conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are prime examples of vicious information wars in the 21st century. This article aims to explore the meaning, dimensions, components, and ethical concerns related to information warfare.
The Meaning of Information Warfare
Information warfare is defined as actions taken by a party to achieve information superiority over the adversary. It involves offensive, defensive, and exploitative methods of using information to disrupt, corrupt, destroy, or manipulate the adversary's information or perception. The current conflicts have highlighted the use of information as a tool to shape narratives and mobilize support for a particular cause.
It consists of several components, including electronic warfare, cyber warfare, military deception, and psychological operations (PSYOPS). Electronic warfare disrupts the adversary's electronic communication, while cyber warfare involves cyber attacks and hacking. Military deception uses information to deceive the enemy, and PSYOPS focus on managing perceptions and mobilizing support through narrative building and online engagement.
International Adoption of Information Warfare
Various countries have recognized the importance of information warfare and have established their own departments or agencies to handle it. The United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia are among the countries that have dedicated resources to information warfare. In India, while there is no specific command or offensive information warfare core, the Indian Army released a military psychological operations doctrine in 2010 to address information warfare.
Ethical Concerns of Information Warfare
Information warfare comes with its own set of ethical and moral concerns. The low cost and frequent incidences of information warfare increase the possibility of escalation between parties. Capability inequality, right to privacy breaches, sophistication of attacks, and the lack of attribution and accountability are other major concerns. There is a need for a comprehensive and holistic approach to address these concerns and establish principles of just information warfare.
MILITARY
Canadian Aircraft Intercepted in South China Sea
While conducting routine exercises in the South China Sea, the Ottawa's helicopter, Cyclone, encountered multiple unsafe interactions with a PLAAF J11 fighter aircraft.
The initial encounter between the Cyclone helicopter and the j11 fighter aircraft was deemed safe. However, subsequent encounters proved to be unsafe. With successive passes, the fighter jet conducted a Passover the Cyclone helicopter, causing significant turbulence and necessitating evasive actions to ensure the safety of the helicopter and its crew.
In another incident on the same day, the J11 fighter aircraft launched flares directly in front of the helicopter. The pilot skillfully maneuvered to avoid the flares and reduce the risk of ingesting them into the helicopter's rotor and intakes.
China to Show No Mercy
A statement from General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party, has reaffirmed China's stance on Taiwan's independence. General Zhang declared that the Chinese military will not tolerate any efforts to separate Taiwan from China and will "show no mercy" in response to such attempts.
This announcement was made at the 10th Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, a significant gathering centered on military diplomacy, which saw attendance from over 1,800 participants. These participants included 99 official delegations, defense ministers from 19 countries, military chiefs, and various representatives from international organizations.
The forum took place amidst notable changes in the Chinese military's leadership, including the absence of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who was recently dismissed. This move is speculated to be part of President Xi Jinping's broader anti-corruption campaign rather than a reflection of military strategy.
ANALYST COMMENT. I've been looking at the recent changes within the Chinese military, particularly the Rocket Force, and I can't help but think there's more to it than what has been publicly announced. The replacement of seasoned commanders with individuals from the Air Force and Navy, who don't have a background in nuclear weapons, is likely a deliberate move. It’s likely that China is shifting its strategic focus, towards developing a 'Nuclear Triad' capability, which would be a significant development in their military posture.
These top-level changes are unlikely to shake the PLA's operational readiness. The Chinese military is structured with a resilience, to anticipate and compensate for such disruptions in its hierarchy.
As for President Xi's anti-corruption campaign within the military, I have my reservations. Since 2012, there's been a notable effort to purge corruption, but it's apparent that the problem runs deep. The ongoing issues of corruption are troubling because they hint at systemic issues that a simple change of personnel won't fix.
ECONOMIC
US Economic Strategy in the Indo-Pacific Region
The Indo-Pacific region is the fastest growing and most dynamic region in the world. With half of the world's population and generating two-thirds of global growth, it plays a crucial role in the global economy. This week, the United States has held several press conferences and released statements on their strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
Trade and investment between the United States and the Indo-Pacific region have steadily increased over the past decade. In 2022, trade between the two reached $2.28 trillion, a 25% increase since 2019. The United States exported about $770 billion to the region, accounting for almost one-quarter of global exports. This growing economic integration benefits both American firms and workers, as well as the economies of the Indo-Pacific countries.
The disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains. To address this, the United States is pursuing a strategy called "friendshuring," which aims to strengthen economic resilience through diversifying supply chains with trusted allies and partners. By collaborating with Indo-Pacific countries, we can create stable and secure supply chains while protecting national security interests.
The Indo-Pacific region faces urgent global challenges, such as climate change and debt distress. The United States is committed to supporting Indo-Pacific countries in addressing these challenges and realizing the opportunities of the energy transition. Through strategic multilateral and bilateral engagements, they are collaborating with countries like Vietnam and India to strengthen economic resilience, address climate vulnerabilities, and promote sustainable development.
In addition to multilateral efforts, the United States is actively engaging with individual countries in the Indo-Pacific region,
China
The United States recognizes the importance of its economic relationship with China. While we do not seek to decouple from China, we are committed to securing national security interests, advancing human rights, and seeking a healthy economic relationship. The Treasury Department is engaging with China's economic team to promote clear communication and address areas of agreement and disagreement.
South Korea and Japan
The United States is deepening its economic partnerships with South Korea and Japan. Through trilateral collaboration, we are working to bolster the resilience of our respective supply chains. Bilateral engagements with these countries focus on addressing economic disparities and promoting sustainable growth.
Vietnam
The US-Vietnam economic relationship is experiencing significant growth. Bilateral trade has reached over $140 billion, with trade in sectors like electronics and automotive driving this growth. The United States is partnering with Vietnam to strengthen supply chain resilience and support its transition to clean energy. Initiatives like the Just Energy Transition Partnership demonstrate our commitment to addressing global challenges together.
India
India is the United States' largest trading partner in Asia. Bilateral trade exceeded $190 billion in 2022, and the United States is actively collaborating with India on critical and emerging technologies, climate change, and debt distress. The two countries have also launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPF), which aims to write new rules for the 21st-century economy.
ANALYST COMMENT. The United States is making a very clear economic push into the Indo Pacific, and it’s important to note that the United States is focused on the biggest economies of the region. This is the first major play in what is likely to be a push to establish the major economic order in the region.
ENDS