Grey Zone Situation Report 08 DEC 23
Global Tensions in Focus: Taiwanese Intelligence Insights and Gaza Conflict Developments
Evening everyone,
It’s been a while.
I’ve been busy with other things and unfortunately have had to drop writing on here for a couple weeks, but I have found some space now and was able to dig up some solid reporting.
I hope you are all well and are looking forward to the Christmas and New Year break. It’s been a hell of year and there are zero indications that things are cooling off around the globe.
As always, stay safe and stay ahead.
ALCON
Update on Taiwanese Intelligence Observations
Unusual Activity in the Taiwan Strait
Taiwan's Ministry of Defense reported significant military activity in the Taiwan Strait on December 7. A total of 26 aircraft from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) were tracked, with 15 crossing the median line of the strait. Additionally, 10 ships were observed in the area. Among these activities, a mysterious balloon-like object at an altitude of 6,400 meters, moving eastward, garnered significant attention. The Taiwanese Ministry of Defense has not confirmed whether this object is a reconnaissance balloon, leading to speculation and inquiries about the absence of photographic evidence or Taiwanese fighter jets escorting the balloon.
China's Alleged Efforts to Influence Taiwanese Elections
According to reports, Taiwanese intelligence has disclosed that China convened a high-level meeting in early December to strategize on influencing Taiwan's upcoming elections. The meeting, reportedly led by Wang Huning, the deputy head of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan, involved senior officials from various Chinese government departments. The departments included the Propaganda Department of the CCP Central Committee, the Ministry of State Security, the Ministry of Defense, and the Taiwan Affairs Office.
Assigned Tasks
Following the meeting, specific tasks were allocated:
PLA Propaganda and Psychological Operations: The PLA's Propaganda Department and Psychological Operations Unit, known as the "311 Base," are tasked with conducting campaigns to sway public opinion. These campaigns are to be carried out through news outlets and social media platforms.
Outreach Programs: China's Taiwan Affairs Office and the United Front Work Department of the CPC Central Committee are to develop outreach initiatives. These include exchange activities with Taiwanese politicians and offering discounted airfare for Taiwanese living in China to encourage them to return home to vote.
Narrative of Choice: China is expected to continue promoting the narrative of a 'choice between peace and war.' This narrative suggests that the continuation of the Democratic Progressive Party's rule in Taiwan could lead to war with China.
Analyst Comment:
The recent developments in the Taiwan Strait and the alleged Chinese efforts to influence Taiwan's elections are of considerable strategic importance. The use of a mysterious balloon-like object, whether for reconnaissance or other purposes, indicates a new dimension in the ongoing tensions across the strait. The lack of clarity and response from the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense raises questions about the nature and purpose of this object.
The reported meeting led by Wang Huning and the tasks distributed among various Chinese departments demonstrate a concerted effort by China to assert influence over Taiwan's political landscape. The use of propaganda, psychological operations, and outreach programs highlights the multifaceted approach China is taking in this endeavor. The narrative of 'choice between peace and war' is particularly concerning, as it suggests a direct correlation between Taiwan's domestic politics and the broader regional stability.
Chinese Expert Predictions on Russia's Victory in Ukraine
Overview
Chen Feng, a columnist for Guancha.cn, has made bold predictions regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, anticipating a Russian victory. His commentary, along with insights from other Chinese experts, sheds light on the strategic dynamics and potential outcomes of the war.
Chen Feng's Analysis
Chen Feng's commentary focuses on the intensity of the battles and the strategic implications of Russia's actions:
Fighting in Avdiivka: The combat in Avdiivka is described as more intense than the earlier battles in Bakhmut.
Russian Victories: Feng anticipates that after successes in Bakhmut and Zaporozhye, Russia is poised for a third victory in Avdiivka.
Missed Opportunities: He suggests that if the Allies had retreated from Bakhmut earlier, they could have mounted a more forceful and high-spirited attack on Zaporozhye. However, the situation has since changed.
NATO's Advice to Zelensky: Feng notes that NATO advised President Zelensky to abandon Bakhmut, but this suggestion was rejected. He compares Zelensky's refusal to retreat to Adolf Hitler's tactics during World War II, particularly at the Battle of Stalingrad, predicting a similar outcome.
Perspectives from Other Experts
Other Chinese observers contribute additional strategic insights:
Jiangxi Province Expert: This expert emphasizes the need for Russian troops to augment their military resources in Avdiivka. He highlights the vulnerability of troops crossing open fields and suggests enhancing counter-battery warfare, electronic suppression, and the use of attack drones.
Battle of Avdiivka's Significance: Another observer posits that the Battle of Avdiivka will be pivotal not only for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict but also for the security and stability of the whole of Europe.
RESTRICTED
Gaza Militant Threat Activity as at 7 Dec 23
A detailed timeline of the resistance operations conducted on December 7, 2023, against Israeli forces:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Grey Zone to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.