Grey Zone Situation Report 17 Dec 23
Geopolitical Shifts: Russia-China Strategic Alliance and NATO's Asia-Pacific Expansion Concerns
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ALCON
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DIPLOMATIC
Russia and China Enhance Cultural and Energy Cooperation, Bolstering Strategic Alliance
Russia and China have been intensifying their cooperation across various sectors, signaling a strategic alignment that could be seen as laying the groundwork for mutual support in the event of a conflict with Western nations.
At the 24th meeting of the China-Russia Humanitarian Cooperation Committee, conducted via video link, Chinese State Councilor Shen Yiqin and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova pledged to expand bilateral cultural cooperation. Both countries acknowledged the past year's fruitful collaboration in sports, education, and other humanitarian fields. They emphasized the positive impact of cultural and people-to-people exchanges in strengthening mutual understanding and supporting the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia.
Looking ahead, both sides committed to implementing the consensus reached by their heads of state, aiming to enhance the quality of cultural cooperation and people-to-people interactions. With the 75th anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations approaching, Shen called for improved communication mechanisms and joint initiatives, such as the 2024-2025 China-Russia Year of Culture, to open a new chapter in cultural cooperation.
Golikova expressed Russia's readiness to deepen practical cooperation in the humanitarian field, enhancing mutual benefits and fostering enduring friendship.
Additionally, Russia and China have significantly increased their energy collaboration. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that Russia would supply a record volume of over 100 million tons of coal to China this year. Moreover, in the first ten months of 2023, Russia supplied more oil and petroleum products to China than in the entire previous year.
Furthermore, the two countries have agreed to cooperate in hydrogen production technologies, marking a significant step in their energy partnership. This collaboration in energy and cultural fields reflects a deepening strategic alliance between Russia and China, potentially establishing safeguards and mutual support mechanisms in case of heightened tensions or conflict with Western countries.
Vietnam and China Sign Comprehensive Cooperation Agreements, Strengthening Bilateral Ties Including Military
During a visit to Hanoi by Chinese President Xi Jinping, Vietnam and China significantly bolstered their bilateral relations by signing a comprehensive 16-page joint declaration along with 36 cooperation documents covering a wide range of areas including infrastructure, trade, and security.
The agreements, half of which are non-binding and whose contents remain undisclosed, mark a deepening of the collaboration between the two Communist-ruled countries. The list of deals encompasses various key sectors, with some of the most notable signings being:
In the realm of Infrastructure and Rail Links, memorandums of understanding were signed to strengthen Vietnam-China railway cooperation. This includes aid for cross-border railway development and an agreement to jointly construct a new bridge across the Red River, connecting Vietnam's Lao Cai province with China's Yunnan province. Additionally, there is a commitment to work on interoperable railways linking China to Vietnam's northern port of Haiphong.
In terms of Defence and Security, the countries agreed to conduct joint naval patrols in the Gulf of Tonkin and established a hotline between Vietnam's agriculture ministry and China's coastguard for incidents in the South China Sea, adding to an existing hotline between their defence ministries. They also reached agreements on the extradition of prisoners and people convicted of crimes, conducting joint search-and-rescue operations at sea, and boosting security and intelligence cooperation, including actions against "hostile forces."
Digital, Data, and Telecommunications cooperation were also enhanced, with MoUs signed for investment in the digital economy and data, and in the fields of telecommunications, information technology, and digital transformation.
In the area of Trade and Investment, the countries committed to promoting the Global Development Initiative, a Chinese-led effort to spur global economic growth, and agreed to collaborate on green development. They also devised action plans to implement previous MoUs focused on economic and trade cooperation with China’s Yunnan province and the autonomous region of Guangxi. Furthermore, they pledged to develop an economic zone to enhance trade and investment.
MILITARY
NATO's Expansion into Asia Criticized by Russia and China
In a recent statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized NATO's expansion into Asia, describing it as a provocative move that creates new military-political blocs and heats up the geopolitical situation. Putin emphasized the cooperation between Russia and China in military, economic, and cultural fields, stating that their friendship is not aimed against third countries. He contrasted this with Western alliances, which he perceives as being formed against specific nations. Putin warned that Beijing and Moscow are closely monitoring these developments and will respond appropriately in due time.
Echoing Putin's sentiments, the Chinese Foreign Ministry also expressed concerns over NATO's eastward expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. The Ministry argued that this move contradicts NATO's original purpose as a regional defensive military organization and warned that it could lead to increased confrontation in Asia, potentially undermining regional peace and stability. The statement highlighted the nature of Sino-Russian relations, which are based on principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation, and not targeting third parties. The Ministry underscored that the relationship between China and Russia transcends the Cold War-era model of military-political alliances, differentiating it from the "small circle" and camp confrontations typical of NATO.
North Korea Modernizes Il-76 Aircraft into AWACS at Sunan Airport for Enhanced Surveillance Capabilities
The Il-76 is a multi-purpose four-engine turbofan strategic airlifter designed by the Soviet Union. North Korea is currently engaged in a project at Sunan Airport in Pyongyang to convert this aircraft into an AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) platform. AWACS are advanced surveillance aircraft equipped with radar and other sensors, designed to provide all-weather surveillance, command, control, and communications needed for modern air operations. This modernization effort reflects North Korea's intent to enhance its aerial surveillance and command capabilities.
ECONOMIC
Maritime Chokepoints a Concern
The strategic significance of global maritime chokepoints has been underscored by recent events, including attacks by Yemen's Houthis in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, targeting vessels to allegedly support Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas conflict. With approximately 80% of global trade conducted by sea, these chokepoints are critical to the world's interconnected supply chains and economies.
The importance of these chokepoints was highlighted when the Ever Given, a mega-ship, blocked the Suez Canal, causing significant disruption to global trade. The Suez Canal, connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, is vital for European trade, with its blockade causing substantial delays in crude oil supplies and impacting energy prices. The incident affected nearly 400 ships and led to logistical challenges in ports worldwide, even after the Ever Given was freed.
Global chokepoints, such as the Suez Canal, are crucial for the transit of various vessels, including tankers, container ships, and military naval vessels. Other key chokepoints include the Turkish Strait, Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, and the Panama Canal. These chokepoints, lacking low-cost alternative routes, are vital for global trade, particularly in oil and food.
The vulnerability of these shipping routes to threats like piracy, military conflicts, and cyberattacks has increased, blurring the lines between global shipping and geopolitics. The geopolitical impact of a blockade or conflict at these points can lead to spikes in food and energy prices, potentially causing social unrest and political turmoil.
The 21st century's major geopolitical dynamics are likely to focus on regions like the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Black Sea, encompassing significant chokepoints. The overlap between key chokepoints for oil and global food trade transit underscores the potential for future geopolitical disruptions.
Analyst Summary.
Recent developments in the Indo-Pacific region signify a continued shift in the region, characterized by strengthened alliances and strategic realignments. The growing collaboration between Russia and China, both in cultural and energy sectors, and China's expanding ties with Vietnam across multiple domains, including military, reflect a concerted move towards forming robust regional partnerships that will likely put pressure on the West.
This trend, juxtaposed against the backdrop of NATO's perceived expansion into Asia and the strategic vulnerabilities posed by global maritime chokepoints, highlights the continuation of reconfiguration of power balances.