Grey Zone Situation Report: China Manipulates Media in Solomon Islands, US-China Tensions Simmer, Tuvalu's Pivotal Elections, and Russia's War Accusations
Your free and weekly digest on the most pressing and underreported events to keep you informed, aware and ahead of the rest.
Hello Friends,
I hope you have all had a safe but productive week, and welcome to the first Grey Zone Situation Report for 2024.
If it’s your first time here, this is our original flagship report that got everything started on this platform. In general terms, it’s our always free and weekly digest on important and underreported grey zone activity primarily across the Indo Pacific, and at times, further abroad.
So what is ‘grey zone activity’?
"Grey zone activity" refers to a concept in international relations and security that describes actions by a state or non-state actor that are aggressive or coercive but deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of conventional military conflict and open warfare. These activities are often ambiguous, making it difficult to clearly attribute them to an aggressor or classify them as an act of war. The objective is typically to achieve political, economic, or military advantages without triggering a full-scale military response.
Key characteristics of grey zone activities include:
Ambiguity: Actions are often designed to be ambiguous, making it difficult to definitively prove who is responsible or whether they breach international law.
Coercion and Influence: These activities often aim to coerce, intimidate, or influence other states or actors, without resorting to direct military conflict.
Non-Military Means: They often involve non-military tools, like cyber attacks, propaganda, economic pressure, political influence operations, and the use of proxy forces.
Plausible Deniability: Actors engaging in grey zone activities typically maintain plausible deniability, complicating international response or condemnation.
Incrementalism: Grey zone strategies often involve gradual or incremental actions to slowly change the status quo, making it harder for opponents to justify a strong response.
Examples of grey zone activities include cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, political meddling, use of private military companies, and maritime militia operations in disputed waters. Countries engage in these activities to advance their interests while avoiding the costs and risks associated with traditional warfare.
I like to coin this as ‘Grey Zone Warfare’ and it is the current theatre of war that we experience here in the Indo Pacific. South China Sea, China - Taiwan, Great Power Competition, Island Disputes etc… these are the battles that are being fought in this arena with countries like Australia, New Zealand and smaller Pacific Island Nations (PICs) caught in the middle.
The below report is structured into the DIME format, standing for Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic as it is a good way to structure the information.
If you get value from this, then please, share it around your networds.
Stay ahead.
ALCON.
Diplomatic
Media Influence in the Solomon Islands
The Chinese Embassy's involvement in influencing local media coverage in the Solomon Islands, particularly regarding Taiwan's elections, has raised concerns. The Media Association of Solomon Islands (MASI) has criticized this intervention, emphasizing the need for media independence and the challenges faced by news organizations in maintaining autonomy amidst external financial pressures.
High-Level US-China Talks
The upcoming meeting between US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Thailand signifies the continuation of high-level talks aimed at managing tensions between the US and China. Key topics include Taiwan and regional military activities. This meeting follows a series of engagements aimed at easing tensions between the two nations.
Tuvalu Elections: Global Implications
Tuvalu, one of the world's smallest nations, is holding elections that are drawing international attention due to its strategic importance in the South Pacific and diplomatic ties with Taiwan. The outcome could influence a proposed security treaty with Australia.
Tuvalu comprises nine coral atolls, located midway between Hawaii and Australia. The nation is grappling with the threat of global warming, which poses a risk to its low-lying atolls. Efforts are underway to elevate the islands through land reclamation. With a population of around 11,500, Tuvalu, a former British colony that gained independence in 1978, remains one of the world's smallest countries. The British monarch is still recognized as the head of state.
Significance of the Election
Tuvalu's diplomatic relations with Taiwan are central to this election, especially in the context of China's claims over Taiwan and Nauru's recent switch in allegiance from Taiwan to China. Prime Minister Natano and Sopoaga both favor maintaining ties with Taiwan, while Paeniu has indicated a desire to reassess Tuvalu's relations with both Beijing and Taipei. Additionally, the outcome could impact a security treaty with Australia, which is still under debate. This treaty, if ratified, would give Australia significant influence over Tuvalu's security and defense agreements, including any potential dealings with China.
Russia's Foreign Minister Accuses US, South Korea, Japan of Preparing for War
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused the United States, South Korea, and Japan of forming a military bloc aimed at North Korea. Speaking at a UN news conference, Lavrov criticized the increased military activities and large-scale exercises conducted by this group. He noted a shift in South Korea’s stance towards North Korea, describing it as "hostile" and also pointed out Japan's aggressive rhetoric and discussions about establishing NATO infrastructure with US assistance.
Lavrov explicitly stated that the objective of this military coalition is to prepare for war with North Korea, referring to it by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). He also mentioned vague references by the US, South Korea, and Japan about potential nuclear-related cooperation.
The allegations come in the wake of naval exercises conducted last week by the US, South Korea, and Japan, which included an American aircraft carrier. These exercises are seen as a response to North Korea's recent surge in weapons testing and threats, escalating regional tensions. Senior diplomats from the three nations met in Seoul to discuss the situation with Pyongyang.
Information
China's Extensive Disinformation Campaign
Recent statistics reveal that China has executed a highly sophisticated disinformation and misinformation campaign against the United States. Throughout 2023, this operation saw the creation of 30 fake YouTube channels, amassing 120 million views and 730,000 subscribers. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) in its report titled "Shadow Play" has identified this as one of the most effective China-related influence operations on social media.
Propaganda Content and Techniques
The campaign involved over 4,500 videos that glorified China's technological advancements and criticized the United States, often portraying America’s economy in a negative light and elevating China and Russia as global leaders. These videos, featuring American accents and stilted grammar produced by AI, were rapidly disseminated, gaining significant traction before YouTube could respond. YouTube flagged these videos for violating its policies on spam, deception, and misleading content, suspecting state-directed content from China.
This propaganda effort is part of a broader trend where China leverages technology for geopolitical influence. Despite efforts like Google's removal of 50,000 misleading YouTube attempts in early 2023, Beijing's capacity to continue these operations remains strong due to the ease and low cost of AI-generated content production. YouTube’s proactive moderation has been crucial in addressing such misinformation, though the challenge persists due to the sheer volume of user-generated content.
China's Influence in Japan: The Hawaiian Wildfires Conspiracy
A parallel disinformation campaign in Japan, focusing on the Hawaiian wildfires, demonstrates China's expansive reach. Blog posts on Japan’s Ameba Blog platform falsely claimed the fires were a result of US military experiments. Analysis revealed these posts, which spread to other platforms, were part of a coordinated effort, likely originating from China, using AI-generated profiles and images. Analysts have termed this tactic 'spamouflage,' which blends spamming and camouflage.
False Information on Fukushima’s Treated Water
Another facet of China's disinformation campaign targeted the release of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant. Online posts falsely claimed severe impacts on agriculture and fisheries, quoting nonexistent experts. This campaign intended to stir public opinion against the US and Japanese governments, employing AI-created images and fabrications to manipulate perception.
Taiwan faces even more direct threats from China's false information campaigns. AI advancements have enabled more sophisticated methods, such as using screenshots to avoid detection and spreading multilingual content. Taiwan has responded with legal measures, including criminal penalties for using deepfake technology to influence elections.
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Military
US Warship's Taiwan Strait Transit Triggers Chinese Accusations
China has accused the United States of "abusing international law" and engaging in "dangerous provocations" in East Asia. This accusation follows the transit of the USS John Finn, a US Navy destroyer, through the Taiwan Strait, marking the first such operation in 2024. This transit, occurring after Taiwan's recent presidential elections, has heightened tensions between the US and China.
The USS John Finn's journey through the strait, a strategic waterway separating Taiwan from mainland China, comes amidst Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party securing a third consecutive presidential term. China, under the Communist Party and leader Xi Jinping, views Taiwan as its territory and has not excluded the use of military force for reunification. In contrast, the US, under the Taiwan Relations Act, is committed to providing Taiwan with military defense capabilities.
US Navy's Stance and China's Reaction
The US Navy asserts that the transit was conducted in accordance with international law, emphasizing its commitment to upholding freedom of navigation. However, China's Defense Ministry criticizes the US's military activities in the region as provocations and calls for a change in behavior to avoid maritime and air incidents. This sentiment was echoed in a statement by Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian, urging the US to halt dangerous provocations and to regulate its military activities.
Taiwan's New Military Conscription in Response to China's Threat
In Taiwan, a new batch of recruits has commenced their one-year compulsory military service, a significant extension from the previous four-month period. This change, announced by President Tsai Ing-wen in late 2022, is a direct response to increasing military threats from China. Over the past four years, China has intensified its military, diplomatic, and economic pressures on Taiwan, asserting its sovereignty claims with near-daily air force missions around the island.
Induction of Recruits and Military Objectives
At a recruitment center in Taichung, central Taiwan, young men assembled for induction, undergoing bag checks for drugs by dogs and receiving haircuts before donning army fatigues. Officer Lien Chih-wei emphasized the shared responsibility to enhance the military's structure and combat power, stating it as foundational for strengthening Taiwan's military capabilities.
The Taiwanese army expects 670 conscripts in this first batch under the new service duration. The army highlights that facing a complex international environment, building a strong will to resist the enemy is a top priority. Extending the compulsory service to one year is aimed at not only boosting immediate combat readiness but also enhancing the quality of reserve personnel, mobilisation energy, and overall national defense capabilities.
North Korea's Advanced Missile Test Raises Concerns
North Korea conducted a test launch of a medium-range solid-fuel ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic maneuverable warhead. This launch, aimed at confirming the missile's flight characteristics and the reliability of new solid fuel engines, reportedly did not impact the security of surrounding countries and was independent of regional situations.
International Analysis and Implications
The South Korean military is analyzing the launch, noting the absence of detailed technical data. The launch is seen as part of North Korea's regular missile development activities. Experts believe this test, the first of its kind in 2024, represents a significant advancement in North Korea's military capabilities, especially with the introduction of solid-fuel technology and a hypersonic warhead.
Concerns Over Regional Security
The missile, potentially capable of reaching US military bases in Japan and Guam, poses a considerable threat to South Korea's air defense system. Analysts highlight the challenge in detecting and defending against solid-fuel missiles, which are quicker to deploy and harder to intercept due to their speed and maneuverability. South Korea's current defense systems may not be adequately equipped to counter such threats.
Economic
Egypt Enhances Ties and Trade with BRICS Members After Joining Group
Egypt is working to strengthen its ties with BRICS members since joining the group this year, with its trade volumes already increasing, according to the planning minister. The minister, Hala al-Said, discussed enhancing cooperation with the BRICS bloc and its New Development Bank, particularly after a meeting with NDB President Dilma Rousseff. Trade with BRICS countries has grown significantly, with imports up 33% and exports up 75% since 2020. Egypt's BRICS membership is expected to ease its foreign currency shortage and attract new investment, although analysts anticipate it will take time to see tangible benefits.
Saudi Arabia Considers Joining BRICS; Decision Process Ongoing
Saudi Arabia is still deliberating over an invitation to join the BRICS bloc, a decision not bound by the January 1st deadline, according to sources. The invitation, extended last August to several countries including Saudi Arabia, is under review for its economic benefits, particularly with China and India being key trade partners. Saudi Economy Minister Faisal Alibrahim confirmed the ongoing decision-making process. Joining BRICS could increase the bloc's economic influence and align with the Global South's interests. Saudi Arabia's decision is influenced by geopolitical dynamics and its desire to balance relations with major powers. The UAE, another invitee, has accepted the invitation, emphasizing economic over political motives.