Strategic Report: Assessing the Likelihood of a Russo-NATO Conflict - Part I
This is a two-part report that aims to provide an analysis on the likelihood of a Russo-NATO war. Part one discusses Europe's response (or lack thereof) to Russian aggression with assessed impacts.
By J.M. Larrier
Overview
The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has ignited a new crisis in European security, casting doubt on the credibility and effectiveness of NATO—the transatlantic military alliance established post-World War II to deter Soviet aggression. Although NATO has denounced Russia's actions and vowed support for Ukraine—a partner, not a member—it has been criticized for disunity and a lack of preparedness to address the Russian threat to its eastern flank and beyond. This analysis will scrutinize comments from NATO and Western intelligence officials regarding Russia's threat to NATO nations and will delve into factors impacting NATO's response capabilities, such as Western European nations' failure to fulfill NATO obligations and to rejuvenate their defense industries, emphasizing the readiness challenges within their militaries and the potential for Russian offensive action against a NATO nation in the foreseeable future.
The Russian Threat
NATO officials have consistently warned that Russia's threat extends beyond Ukraine, endangering Europe's overall stability and security. In 2021, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg remarked, "Russia is a power in decline—its GDP does not keep pace with many other countries. However, a declining economy and power can still pose a threat, especially as Russia possesses nuclear weapons and is investing in new military capabilities, deploying hypersonic missiles, and stationing new nuclear-capable missiles in Europe. This requires our serious attention." Before Ukraine's invasion, Russia's deployment of nuclear-capable missiles to Belarus and its bolstered ties with rogue actors had already heightened tensions.
Western intelligence has echoed concerns over Russia's intentions and capabilities. A December 2023 report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) revealed Putin's aim "to ready Russia for a potential future large-scale conventional war with NATO," restructuring and expanding military forces, notably in the northwest, abutting Finland, Latvia, and Estonia. It detailed the division of the Western Military District (WMD) to reform military districts as a part of a broader restructuring to prime Russia for potential large-scale warfare against NATO. The WMD, though focused on these areas, has diverted much of its force to Ukraine, suffering significant losses—a factor in assessing future Russian aggression risk. Putin has linked Finland's NATO accession to Russia's military command expansion, suggesting a defensive rationale.
NATO Readiness as a Growing Concern
Several factors hinder NATO's capacity to counter Russian threats, including Western European nations' failure to meet NATO spending obligations, to revitalize domestic defense industries, and to address military readiness issues. NATO guidelines stipulate that member states should allocate at least 2% of GDP to defense and 20% of defense budgets to major equipment and R&D. Yet, as of 2023, only 11 out of 31 members have met the 2% threshold, with a mere 15 reaching the 20% goal. Key Western European nations, like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, have slashed defense spending post-Cold War, becoming increasingly dependent on U.S. security. A November 2023 German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) report cautioned that Europe's NATO members have "five to nine years to become 'war-ready' against a Russian incursion." The report criticized the lack of military capability and political resolve to deter or fend off Russian advances, citing neglected defense industries and infrastructure needed for troop and supply movement.
This deficiency is manifest in the struggles of European nations to supply Ukraine with munitions and materials, with the EU notably missing production deadlines, prompting questions about the EU's capacity to equip its forces in a conflict.
“The European reluctance to consolidate resources for defense industry and readiness enhancement suggests either a skepticism towards the legitimacy of Russian aggression warnings or a preference to depend on the U.S. for defense responsibilities..”
Strategic Assessment: Probability of a Russo-NATO Conflict
Recent statements by NATO and Western intelligence officials regarding the Russian threat highlight the escalating concerns and urgency surrounding Europe's deteriorating security landscape. Nevertheless, several critical factors should be considered in evaluating the potential for a near-term Russo-NATO conflict and the validity of these alarms.
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