Threat Assessment: The Future of Houthi Strikes in the Red Sea
Assessing Houthi attacks on commercial and Coalition vessels in the Red Sea, the international naval response, and the potential implications of these developments on regional security.
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Houthi attacks on commercial and Coalition naval vessels in the Red Sea have escalated since early March, including the first fatalities and vessel sinking attributed to their campaign. In response, the European Union's Operation Aspides and the U.S.-led Operations Prosperity Guardian and Poseidon Archer have intensified their defensive and offensive measures. Despite these efforts, the effectiveness of the international naval presence and strikes against Houthi targets is under scrutiny, with concerns about the increased lethality and accuracy of Houthi attacks. Iran's support for the Houthis and the potential for increased military action against Iranian assets are also highlighted, alongside a likely uptick in naval activities by the Indian Navy in response to the recent attacks.
By J.M. Larrier, Defense Bulletin
Since the beginning of March, there have been two separate Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, as well as numerous strikes on Coalition vessels stationed in the local region. Additionally, the “MSC/MV Rubymar,” struck on February 18th, sank on March 3rd after drifting nearly 40 nm. This marked the first vessel sunk by the Houthis since their strike campaign began in November of last year. Also, as of the time of writing, the second strike this month on the “True Confidence,” a Barbados-flagged bulk carrier, has resulted in the first fatalities since the beginning of the Houthi strike campaign. We’ve now seen a total of 65-75 Houthi strikes. According to naval watchdog Ian Ellis of IEJ Media, 23 Houthi strikes have successfully hit their targets.
Coalition Response
The European Union’s Operation Aspides has been active since February 19th. Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, and Italy have all pledged support. While French vessels were already on station, an additional 5 frigates from Germany, Belgium, Greece, and Italy joined the coalition. The Greek frigate, the HS Hydra, is the most recent vessel to join the coalition in the Red Sea. Since the beginning of the operation, two engagements have involved the Italian destroyer, the “Caio Duilio”, and the German frigate, the “Hessen”. In total, 3 Houthi targets have been shot down by vessels participating in the Aspides mission. The U.S.-led Operations Prosperity Guardian (OPG) and Poseidon Archer (OPA) are also still ongoing. Under OPG, participating vessels have responded to the numerous Houthi attacks on commercial shipping while simultaneously defending the airspace from Houthi threats. Under the OPA framework, the UK and the U.S. have been conducting strikes on Houthi military assets and infrastructure deemed to be an “imminent” threat to commercial and naval shipping in the Red Sea/Gulf Of Aden.
Assessment/Forecast
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