Threats in the Indo Pacific: 2023 and Beyond
Understand the threats in the Indo Pacific and what they could mean for future stability.
Evening all,
This week, instead of the usual weekly grey zone report, we have something slightly different to give you. New Zealand has recently released its first-ever National Security Strategy, replacing its previous National Security System, along with its Defence Policy Review Statement. Both documents explicitly outline the threats in the Indo-Pacific region. This aligns with the National Security Strategy's goal of increasing public awareness of these issues.
As such, I have compiled a list of the identified threats to the Indo-Pacific from these documents. It's important to note that these threats are not exclusive to New Zealand but also pertain to the West as a whole. I encourage you to review this list and further explore the issues to stay informed and resilient.
Cheers,
Cole from ALCON
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Strategic Competition and Risk of Conflict
The Indo-Pacific region is currently a nexus of strategic competition, with major powers vying for influence and control. This competition is multifaceted, encompassing economic, political, and military dimensions.
China's Ambitions: China's efforts to link economic and security cooperation, create competing regional architectures, and expand its influence with Pacific Island countries have raised concerns. Its security agreement with the Solomon Islands in 2022 exemplifies this ambition.
Potential Flashpoints: Areas such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea have emerged as potential flashpoints. The ongoing tensions in these areas could escalate into larger conflicts, with significant regional and global implications.
North Korea's Destabilization: North Korea's actions continue to destabilize the Korean Peninsula, adding another layer of complexity to the region's security dynamics.
China's Military Expansion
China's military expansion presents a significant challenge to the regional balance of power.
Investment in Military Modernization: Beijing's heavy investment in growing and modernizing its military has enabled it to project military and paramilitary force beyond its immediate region.
Challenges to International Norms: This expansion poses challenges to existing international rules and norms, potentially undermining regional security and the sovereignty of smaller nations.
Russia's Global Disruption
Russia's actions on the global stage have reverberated in the Indo-Pacific region.
Invasion of Ukraine: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its disregard for international laws and norms have challenged the international rules-based system.
Cyber-Attacks and Disinformation: Globally disruptive cyber-attacks and efforts to spread disinformation have created significant threats to democratic processes and social cohesion.
Climate Change: A Looming Threat
Climate change represents an existential threat to the Pacific, with far-reaching implications.
Environmental Impacts: Sea-level rise, extreme weather events, freshwater shortages, and pressure on food stocks are among the severe impacts.
Socio-Economic Risks: These environmental changes exacerbate existing fragilities within Pacific Island countries, leading to increased economic and governance risks.
Growing Challenges to Security and Sovereignty
The region faces growing challenges to security and sovereignty, reflecting broader geopolitical shifts.
Threats to Maritime Domain: Challenges include threats to freedom of navigation and overflight, maritime claims inconsistent with international law, and the establishment of a persistent military presence by states that may not align with Western values.
Hybrid Warfare and Grey Zone Tactics: The use of hybrid warfare, political interference, grey zone tactics, and economic coercion adds to the potential for confrontation and conflict.
Transnational Threats and Disinformation
The layering of various challenges reduces the region's resilience.
Development and Economic Challenges: Issues like indebtedness, inflation, and transnational threats compound the region's vulnerabilities.
Disinformation: Ongoing threats to democracy and social cohesion arise from disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining democratic elections and spreading false narratives.
FIRST LINE ASSESSMENTS
Strategic Competition and Risk of Conflict
China's Ambitions:
Likely: Continued efforts to expand influence, possibly through new security agreements or economic initiatives.
If Worsened: Increased risk of undermining Western alliances and partnerships, potentially leading to escalating tensions.
Potential Flashpoints:
Possible: Escalation in areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea, with limited direct confrontation.
If Worsened: The risk of major conflict would rise, potentially drawing in Western allies and threatening global stability.
North Korea's Destabilization:
Unpredictable: North Korea's actions are hard to forecast but will continue to strain regional security.
If Worsened: The West may be forced to intervene more directly, risking broader conflict.
China's Military Expansion
Likely: Continued growth and modernization, potentially challenging regional balance.
If Worsened: Increased threat to Western interests and allies, possibly undermining regional stability and global norms.
Russia's Global Disruption
Invasion of Ukraine:
Ongoing: Continued influence in the region but limited direct impact on the Indo-Pacific.
If Worsened: Further degradation of international norms, indirectly affecting Western strategic interests.
Cyber-Attacks and Disinformation:
Probable: Ongoing cyber threats and disinformation, with potential impacts on Western democracies.
If Worsened: Increased destabilization of democratic processes and social cohesion in the West.
Climate Change: A Looming Threat
Almost Certain: Continued environmental impacts with indirect effects on Western economies and security interests.
If Worsened: Exacerbated regional fragilities that may require greater Western humanitarian and economic intervention.
Growing Challenges to Security and Sovereignty
Likely: Persistent challenges to maritime domain, including those potentially conflicting with Western values.
If Worsened: Increased risk of confrontation or conflict involving Western powers.
Hybrid Warfare and Grey Zone Tactics:
Possible: Increased utilisation of unconventional methods.
If Worsened: Escalation into more direct threats to Western interests.
Transnational Threats and Disinformation
Likely: Continued economic challenges and disinformation campaigns with indirect effects on Western interests.
If Worsened: Greater vulnerability of Western democratic institutions and potential economic fallout.