Weighing the Odds: A Practical Guide to Force Field Analysis

Force Field Analysis Guide
A practical method for assessing geopolitical outcomes

What is Force Field Analysis?

Force Field Analysis is a structured technique used to assess the factors supporting or resisting a particular outcome. In geopolitical contexts, it helps analysts understand the balance of competing influences - such as political, economic, or military factors - on a given situation.

It is best used when:

• There is a proposed change or emerging situation

• You want to weigh the chances of a particular outcome

• You need to identify opportunities for influence or intervention

This method does not provide a conclusive answer but instead reveals where the weight of influence lies, which can guide further analysis or decision-making.

Download the Force Field Analysis Template Here!

Step 1: Define the Problem

Start with a clear, neutral question. It should be focused on a geopolitical outcome and free of assumptions. Think in terms of likelihood or stability rather than inevitability.

Examples:
Will the current government in Pakistan remain in power through 2025?
Will the Russia–Ukraine conflict expand into NATO territory within the next six months?
Will the Horn of Africa see increased regional cooperation on water security in the next year?

Avoid phrasing like “How will…” or “What will happen…” as they are too open-ended. Instead, focus on yes/no questions that hinge on measurable developments.

Step 2: Brainstorm the Drivers

Identify all relevant drivers that influence the situation. Use the STEMPLES framework to ensure a comprehensive scan:

Social – public sentiment, demographic shifts, ethnic tensions
Technological – access to cyber tools, surveillance capabilities, internet control
Economic – inflation, trade sanctions, foreign investment, economic resilience
Military – troop deployments, military aid, defence alliances
Political – legitimacy, leadership, governance, institutional strength
Legal – international rulings, constitutional law, legal reforms
Environmental – drought, climate shocks, resource scarcity
Security – terrorism, insurgency, border control, internal unrest

Drivers must be written neutrally. For example, instead of “lack of food security,” use “food security” as a condition that can drive or restrain the outcome depending on context.

Step 3: Review and Clarify

Once you've listed your drivers, review them to:

• Remove duplicates or overlap

• Clarify vague wording

• Ensure neutrality

• Group related drivers if helpful

You’re aiming for a refined list that reflects the key forces shaping the outcome, without judgement or implied causality.

Step 4: Assign Strength

Evaluate the relative influence of each driver. Use a simple scale (e.g. 1–5), where 1 is weak influence and 5 is strong. Assign each score based on its expected impact on the outcome.

Do this for both:

• Driving forces (factors pushing toward the outcome)

• Restraining forces (factors holding it back)

It’s okay to have more forces on one side than the other. The strength rating is what matters most.

Step 5: Calculate Scores

Add up the total strength of driving and restraining forces. You can visualise this in a table or chart, but the key is comparing the overall weight of influence. This gives you a snapshot of whether the situation is more likely to shift or hold.

If restraining forces outweigh drivers, the outcome is less likely. If drivers dominate, it suggests momentum for change.

Step 6: Identify Alternative Courses of Action

The value in force field analysis lies in what you can do with it. Based on the balance of forces, consider:

Strengthening a driver that supports a desirable outcome
Weakening a restraining force through policy or intervention
Introducing a new driver that changes the balance
Monitoring specific drivers for second- or third-order effects

In intelligence terms, this could also mean identifying indicators that a driver is becoming more or less significant.

Example Scenario: Will Belarus move closer to the West in the next two years?

This force field analysis evaluates the likelihood of Belarus aligning more closely with Western institutions over the next two years.

Driving Forces (Support Western Alignment):

• Public dissatisfaction with Russia (Social) – Strength: 4, Weight: 1.0

• EU economic incentives (Economic) – Strength: 3, Weight: 0.9

• Active civil society and protests (Political) – Strength: 3, Weight: 0.8

• Digital activism and encrypted communications (Technological) – Strength: 2, Weight: 0.7

• Diaspora influence and funding (Social) – Strength: 2, Weight: 0.6

Restraining Forces (Oppose Western Alignment):

• Russian military presence and leverage (Military) – Strength: 5, Weight: 1.0

• Lukashenko regime control (Political) – Strength: 5, Weight: 1.0

• Fear of instability or repression (Social) – Strength: 4, Weight: 0.9

• State-controlled media (Legal) – Strength: 3, Weight: 0.8

• Weak rule of law and legal protections (Legal) – Strength: 3, Weight: 0.7

Total Driving Force Score: 11.7
Total Restraining Force Score: 9.5
Net Force Score: 2.2

Preliminary Assessment:
The forces supporting Belarusian alignment with the West are slightly stronger than those restraining it, but the margin is narrow. This suggests that the situation is delicately balanced and could shift either way, depending on external shocks or internal political developments. At this stage, the outcome remains uncertain.

Summary:
Force Field Analysis provides a structured lens for weighing competing influences on geopolitical outcomes. By quantifying the strength and weight of each factor, analysts can better understand where momentum lies, where vulnerabilities exist, and where targeted intervention could shift the balance.