Hello everyone!
We’ve shifted the format of this report to break things down by geographic region. Instead of the usual DIME structure, this update looks at the Indo-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, the Americas, and Africa. This change makes it easier to track where pressure points are building and how events connect across theatres. All references for further reading are at the bottom of the report. Enjoy.
Disclaimer
All insights in this report are drawn from adversarial OSINT channels to provide an unfiltered view of non-Western aligned actors and narratives. Content reflects source claims and framing; inclusion does not imply verification.
BLUF
Maritime confrontations in the South China Sea and Taiwan’s resilience measures are keeping the Indo-Pacific tense. Europe is managing Zapad-2025 spillover, tighter air policing, and slow-moving EU sanctions. The Middle East remains volatile with sustained Gaza fighting, Israeli strikes in Syria, and renewed pressure on Iran’s nuclear file. In the Americas, US counter-narcotics actions are stoking friction as Brazil polarises and Haiti’s insecurity persists. Africa is seeing US legislative pressure on South Africa and Zimbabwe, a Sahel justice shift, and mixed economic signals from major economies
Indo-Pacific
Tensions rose at Scarborough Shoal after a China Coast Guard confrontation with about 10 Philippine vessels, including water-cannon use and damage claims shown in Philippine imagery. Taiwan updated its civil defence handbook, expanded staple distribution points, and directed FM radio reliance if networks fail. Officials confirmed strategic reserves rising from 30 to 120 days funded by a resilience budget.
Taiwan to begin mass production of Tiangong-4 missile system in 2026
Taiwan displayed the Tiengong 4 air and missile defence system for service from 2026 alongside Tiengong 3 and Patriot. The PLA broadened activity with air-show rehearsals, UAV displays, and deployments to joint drills in Thailand, while China launched a Long March 2C to test satellite-internet tech. Chinese reporting also promoted AI-enabled ASW advances, and the Philippines showcased new indigenous reconnaissance and FPV attack drones.
Short-term outlook: Further Scarborough Shoal incidents are likely, including water-cannoning and close-quarters manoeuvring. Taiwan’s resilience measures will almost certainly continue on schedule, while PLA signalling through drills and air shows is likely to persist without immediate escalation.
Europe
Russia and Belarus ran Zapad-2025 with large force numbers, long-range strike simulations, and Belarusian references to non-strategic nuclear planning, although numbers are reported to be reduced to reduce escalation risk. A contested incident over Poland triggered tighter NATO air policing with UK Typhoons and French Rafales on tasking. Warsaw publicised the detention of a Ukrainian and a Belarusian after a drone incident near government buildings.
Poland floated debate on a Ukraine no-fly zone as Romania signalled caution. The EU delayed its next Russia sanctions package amid divisions on visas and energy, while eastern members pushed border fortifications and counter-UAS initiatives. Spain cancelled major defence contracts with Israeli firms; Baltic and Balkan navies advanced minehunter transfers and training.
Short-term outlook: NATO air policing and counter-UAS measures will likely tighten along the eastern flank during and after Zapad-2025. A no-fly zone over Ukraine remains unlikely, and the EU will probably pass a diluted sanctions package while avoiding new energy embargoes.
Middle East
Fighting continued in Gaza and the West Bank, including 107 mm rocket and mortar claims and an outage in parts of Gaza City during heavy strikes. Israeli domestic pressures persisted with hostage-family protests, while reports cited a false-alarm alert tied to Yemen. An alleged Israeli drone strike killed a civilian in Lebanon.
Israel reportedly struck targets near Aleppo and allegedly conducted incursions in Quneitra, while media carried claims of exploratory Syria–Israel security contacts. The US designated four Iran-aligned Iraqi groups as FTOs and Russia signalled willingness to supply advanced arms to Iraq. The EU warned Tehran over IAEA cooperation as Iran threatened to void its memorandum if sanctions snap back.
Short-term outlook: Persistent low-intensity conflict in Gaza and the West Bank is likely, with periodic spillover into Lebanon and Syria. EU–Iran friction makes snapback sanctions possible in weeks, which would likely prompt reciprocal Iranian steps and raise escalation risk.
Americas
The US escalated maritime interdictions around Venezuela, with the President stating a third drug boat was taken down. Washington decertified Colombia on drug control with a waiver, prompting a sharp rebuke from President Petro after a strike on alleged Venezuelan narcos. The US also designated Ecuadorian gangs Los Lobos and Los Choneros as FTOs during a visit to Quito.
Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup, handing down a long sentence as the Lula government accelerated budget amendments to head off an amnesty push. US voices weighed in, including a warning from Senator Marco Rubio; a Mexican activist publicly backed Bolsonaro. Haiti violence continued, including a fatal attack on an armoured police vehicle near Kenscoff.
Short-term outlook: US maritime pressure near Venezuela is likely to continue, and diplomatic friction with Colombia is likely to intensify though formal sanctions are less probable. Brazil’s polarisation is almost certain to deepen, and Haiti’s security crisis is likely to persist with limited near-term impact from outside support.
Africa
US legislative activity targeted South Africa and Zimbabwe, including a Senate bill mirroring H.R. 2633 and a House effort to block IFI support unless Zimbabwe pays compensation to dispossessed farmers within 12 months. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger prepared ICC withdrawal documents and advanced plans for a Sahelian Criminal Court with a high-security prison.
Economic signals were mixed: Nigeria reported US$18.2b in new upstream investment and rolled out agriculture incentives; Angola cut its policy rate for the first time in about 2.5 years and Ghana may follow as inflation eases. Uganda sought loans for cross-border power and infrastructure, and Burkina Faso reported about 60.8 tonnes of gold output with exports to the UAE and Switzerland. Digital finance and e-mobility narratives also gained ground.
Short-term outlook: US pressure on South Africa and Zimbabwe will likely harden positions and complicate engagements. An ICC exit by the Sahel trio is highly probable, though a functional regional court is only possible in stages. Monetary easing in Angola and possibly Ghana is likely to support sentiment, while Nigeria’s execution risks remain.
This week’s picture shows pressure points across every theatre, from contested waters in Asia to shifting alliances in Europe, ongoing conflict in the Middle East, polarisation in the Americas, and legislative and economic currents in Africa. The geographic lens highlights how these threads overlap into a wider contest for influence.
What developments are you tracking most closely? Share your thoughts in the comments.
References
Indo-Pacific
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-fires-water-cannon-philippine-ships-south-china-sea-2025-09-16/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/9/16/chinese-philippine-ships-collide-near-disputed-shoal-in-south-china-sea
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/taiwan-launches-new-civil-defence-guide-says-not-aiming-cause-panic-2025-09-16/
https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-new-civil-defense-handbook-china-2336001446d2745bd2773e5f7982e153
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-projects-power-military-parade-with-putin-kim-2025-09-03/
https://apnews.com/article/china-military-parade-weapons-missiles-drones-submarine-efd398d9b3198bb63b505151162312cf
Europe
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-belarus-start-military-exercise-near-nato-border-after-drone-incursion-2025-09-12/
https://apnews.com/article/belarus-russia-military-drills-putin-lukashenko-19c7098df57e6ea1d134bdeab3dd357e
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-bans-drone-flights-limits-small-air-traffic-along-eastern-border-2025-09-11/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-scrambles-jets-closes-lublin-airport-preventative-move-2025-09-13/
https://www.reuters.com/world/eus-19th-russia-sanctions-package-delayed-trump-applies-pressure-2025-09-16/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-wont-discuss-new-russia-sanctions-package-wed-no-new-date-set-2025-09-16/
Middle East
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-intensifies-gaza-city-strikes-many-residents-refuse-evacuation-2025-09-12/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/palestinian-gunmen-kill-six-jerusalem-bus-stop-shooting-2025-09-08/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-vicinity-three-syrian-cities-syrian-media-say-2025-09-08/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-conducts-landing-former-air-defence-base-southwest-damascus-sources-2025-08-27/
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europeans-launch-un-sanctions-process-against-iran-drawing-tehran-ire-2025-08-28/
Americas
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/3-killed-2nd-strike-alleged-venezuelan-drug-boat/story?id=125599866
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/15/trump-strike-venezuela-drug-cartel-vessel
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rubio-us-designating-ecuador-gangs-foreign-terrorist-groups/
https://ec.usembassy.gov/treasury-sanctions-ecuadors-los-lobos-drug-trafficking-organization/
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-sentenced-27-years-after-landmark-coup-plot-conviction-2025-09-12/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZLQ_6N02NM
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