What to watch for 2026
Hey team,
As 2025 draws to a close we wanted to take this opportunity to say thank you for all the support over the year. Through your support, we've been able to continue delivery of insights to our audience, keeping you informed across the worlds most pressing flashpoints.
As we look ahead into 2026, we've compiled a list of key things we will be watching into the new year. We recommend you do too.
Take care and we wish you all a safe and happy new year. See you in 2026!
The ALCON Team
BLUF
The highest-impact 2026 risks cluster around Ukraine, Israel-Palestine (Gaza and the West Bank), Iran-Israel escalation, a Taiwan Strait crisis, Russia probing NATO edges, and renewed DPRK nuclear testing. Conflict spillover risks stay elevated in Sudan, Yemen and the Red Sea, Haiti, Myanmar, and parts of the Sahel and Horn of Africa, while AI-enabled cyber action against essential infrastructure moves from “theory” to a live planning concern.
Diplomacy
Flashpoints to watch
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Ukraine settlement track: partner unity, sanctions posture, and any shift in war aims or ceasefire terms. (Likely to stay contested through 2026.)
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Gaza ceasefire and post-war governance: mediation stability, hostage-related arrangements, and the risk of a return to major fighting.
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West Bank escalation: settlement pressure, security force posture, and whether violence becomes sustained rather than episodic.
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Iran nuclear file and regional alignment: whether diplomacy reopens, or whether pressure loops back into strikes and proxy activity.
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China-Taiwan: crisis management channels, signalling, and third-country involvement as pressure rises.
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Horn of Africa and Red Sea access: Ethiopia-Eritrea border risks and maritime security talks that could shape shipping risk.
2026 assessment
A negotiated Ukraine outcome is possible, but a durable settlement looks unlikely without a clear military inflection. Israel-Iran escalation remains a realistic possibility, especially if nuclear activity accelerates or miscalculation occurs.
Information
Flashpoints to watch
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AI-enabled attack on essential infrastructure: planning indicators, targeting selection, and proof-of-concept activity moving into real-world disruption.
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Election and referendum influence: AI-generated media, impersonation, and data leaks as campaign weapons in multiple regions.
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State cyber access as leverage: long-term access into government and key service providers used for coercion or crisis shaping.
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Supply-chain compromise: third-party platforms used to reach many downstream targets, especially finance, government, and logistics.
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Narrative pressure around Gaza, Ukraine, Taiwan: coordinated amplification to shape public consent and partner cohesion during escalatory moments.
2026 assessment
A major AI-assisted cyber incident is possible in 2026, with a credible chance of cascading second-order impacts if it hits energy, transport, or telecoms. High-volume influence activity is almost certain, with speed and plausibility improving as tooling spreads.
Military
Flashpoints to watch
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Russia-Ukraine intensification: expanded strikes on population centres and infrastructure, plus any shift in external support levels.
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Russia-NATO incident risk: provocation patterns, air and maritime close encounters, and grey-zone actions that test thresholds.
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Taiwan Strait crisis: coercive steps that look like a rehearsal for blockade, plus wider force posturing.
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Korean Peninsula: resumption of DPRK nuclear testing and the chance of military confrontation around that cycle.
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Red Sea and Yemen: Houthi action against shipping, retaliation cycles, and effects on state capacity in Yemen.
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South China Sea: a low-likelihood, high-impact armed encounter, especially around the Philippines.
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Sudan, Sahel, Myanmar, Haiti: persistent conflict with spillover and humanitarian scale effects that can trigger external intervention pressure.
2026 assessment
Large-scale war between major powers remains unlikely, but limited escalation around Taiwan, NATO’s eastern flank, or the South China Sea is possible. Protracted wars in Ukraine and Sudan are likely to continue driving displacement and security spillover.
Economic
Flashpoints to watch
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Trade conflict and tariffs: further tariff steps and countermeasures raising price pressure and uncertainty across supply chains.
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Slower global growth: IMF projects global growth around 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks linked to trade and policy shocks.
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Energy and shipping risk premia: Red Sea insecurity, sanctions enforcement shifts, and chokepoint fragility feeding volatility.
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Debt and fiscal stress: higher borrowing costs and tighter budgets increasing unrest risk and policy instability in weaker states.
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China external pushback: export competitiveness and protectionist response cycles shaping regional politics and industrial policy.
2026 assessment
Trade fragmentation is likely to deepen, with knock-on effects for inflation, investment, and political tolerance for external shocks. Markets will probably reprice quickly around any Iran-Israel flare-up or sustained Red Sea disruption.
Responses